Russia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 6.0
- rank 187 of 197 · 3 years: 5.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −7.1
- rank 103 of 197 · 3 years: −6.9
- Shock absorbed
- 45%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.07
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 2of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Regional war spillover. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land border with russia or belarus; internet users as a share of population; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of population aged 65 and over; urban share of population; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Russia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.69 | −0.61 | −1.02 | −0.45 | 0 | 14 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.4 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.67 | −0.60 | −0.88 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.58 | −1.11 | −0.48 | 0 | 15 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4.4 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.73 | −0.56 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 10.3 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.70 | −0.56 | −1.10 | −0.47 | 0 | 15 | Population Health 8.9 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.58 | −0.46 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.2 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.37 | −0.25 | −0.54 | −0.23 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.21 | −0.18 | −0.33 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Population Health 9.7 · Transitional |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Low 0.22 | −0.16 | −0.28 | −0.12 | ▲ 1 | 4 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9.6 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.30 | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 4 | Internal Security & Order 9.9 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.67 | −0.31 | · | −0.82 | −0.71 | −0.84 | −0.71 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.34 | −0.38 | −0.76 | −0.34 | −0.80 | −1.12 | −0.92 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.74 | −0.41 | −0.81 | · | −0.90 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.84 | −0.30 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.59 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.72 | −0.63 | −0.67 | −0.63 | −0.62 | −0.62 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.61 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.54 | −0.52 | −0.54 | −0.53 | −0.73 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.14 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.29 | −0.25 | −0.32 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.20 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.10 | −0.11 | · | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.22 | −0.35 | −0.25 | −0.22 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.25 | · | −0.26 | −0.26 | · | −0.10 | −0.10 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Russia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +21.3 | 34.6 | 13.2 | 59 | 57 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +16.6 | 45.5 | 28.8 | 58 | 37 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 25.9 | 23.5 | 50 | 46 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.2 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.9 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 40 | 139 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −9.2 | 8.8 | 18.0 | 55 | 109 | Investment Attraction & Projection 10 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.7 | 13.0 | 24.7 | 39 | 147 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.1 | 13.5 | 27.6 | 49 | 119 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.2 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −17.7 | 9.0 | 26.7 | 58 | 182 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −28.0 | 16.0 | 43.9 | 60 | 167 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −29.0 | 8.8 | 37.8 | 47 | 176 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.8 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Russia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 184 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 165 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 80 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 174 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 151 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 176 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 11 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 100 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 11 |
| Health system failure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 178 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 106 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 11 |
| Food and water failure | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 151 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 87 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 11 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 74 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 11 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 169 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 35 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Quantum Technologies 11 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 159 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 12.6 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 11 |
| Broad fall in national security | 16.5 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 71 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Quantum Technologies 11 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 136 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 8.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 14.3 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 151 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 158 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 |
| Defence readiness failure | 16.3 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 99 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.5 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 167 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 17.0 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 38 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Quantum Technologies 11 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.6 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 177 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 15.1 Advanced → Transitional | — Remote · rank 127 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 11.5 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.6 Transitional → Established | 6.6% Likely · rank 29 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | 1.8% Possible · rank 40 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Capable digital government | 12.9 Established → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 41 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.2 Foundational → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 38 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | 1.8% Possible · rank 31 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 12.6 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 33 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.0 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 33 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.0 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Research translated into value | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 36 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.2 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.0 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 32 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 12.3 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 37 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.2 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 13.7 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 14.3 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 13.5 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 35 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 10.9 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 43 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 11.3 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 11.1 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Stronger information environment | 13.6 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 35 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11 |
| Broad rise in national security | 16.5 Advanced | — No route · rank 32 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 16.3 Advanced | — No route · rank 34 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.4 Established | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 16.0 Advanced | — No route · rank 30 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Wider international influence | 13.4 Established | — No route · rank 54 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 50 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.5 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 11.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 53 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |