Saint Kitts & Nevis
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 36.8
- rank 44 of 197 · 3 years: 36.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −13.9
- rank 156 of 197 · 3 years: −13.7
- Shock absorbed
- 17%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; little renewable water per head; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Saint Kitts & Nevis’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.81 | −0.88 | −1.02 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.67 | −0.77 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.74 | −0.90 | −0.40 | 0 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.73 | −0.69 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 14 | Economic Output & Productivity 1.3 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.74 | −0.67 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.3 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.53 | −0.64 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▲ 3 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.67 | −0.62 | −0.69 | −0.33 | 0 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.54 | −0.61 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.59 | −0.61 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.33 | −0.30 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.19 | −1.22 | −0.60 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.30 | −1.21 | −1.04 | −1.34 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.19 | −0.46 | −0.27 | −1.11 | −0.97 | −1.04 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| AI labour shock | −0.19 | −0.42 | · | −1.11 | −0.97 | −1.14 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.16 | −0.48 | · | −0.48 | −0.43 | −0.97 | −1.59 | −1.11 | −0.99 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.46 | −0.56 | −0.42 | −0.98 | −1.37 | −1.12 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.82 | −0.22 | −0.79 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.86 | −0.64 | −0.74 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.19 | −0.54 | −0.57 | · | −1.19 | −1.12 | −1.04 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.19 | −0.35 | −0.24 | −0.35 | −0.82 | −0.79 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −1.10 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.91 | −0.22 | −0.74 | −0.33 | −0.83 | −0.88 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.11 | −0.53 | −0.42 | · | −0.59 | −0.61 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Saint Kitts & Nevis is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +6.4 | 8.8 | 2.4 | 12 | 102 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.4 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 14 | 140 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 25 | 142 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −3.2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 16 | 142 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.4 | 8.0 | 19.3 | 16 | 143 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −13.8 | 12.4 | 26.1 | 20 | 131 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −17.0 | 6.4 | 23.4 | 13 | 180 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −18.3 | 4.4 | 22.7 | 9 | 158 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −25.7 | 11.1 | 36.8 | 15 | 188 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −26.2 | 2.1 | 28.4 | 4 | 139 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Saint Kitts & Nevis, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 3.2% Possible · rank 72 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 2.8% Possible · rank 49 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 33 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 91 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 45 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Health system failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 55 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 72 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 52 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 72 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Food and water failure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 95 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.3 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 52 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 35 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 110 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 163 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×16 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 175 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 153 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 2.6 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 173 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×21 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |