San Marino
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 32.8
- rank 61 of 197 · 3 years: 32.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −15.0
- rank 164 of 197 · 3 years: −15.0
- Shock absorbed
- 22%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.33
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in San Marino’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −1.00 | −1.17 | −0.53 | ▼ 5 | 18 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.97 | −0.97 | −1.26 | −0.58 | ▼ 4 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.91 | −0.79 | −1.07 | −0.48 | ▼ 4 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.76 | −0.78 | −0.95 | −0.43 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.78 | −0.75 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.84 | −0.67 | −0.79 | −0.38 | 0 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.77 | −0.59 | −0.64 | −0.31 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.55 | −0.46 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.35 | −0.39 | −0.51 | −0.23 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1.4 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.38 | −0.28 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 5 | 8 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.9 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.18 | −1.29 | −0.31 | −0.63 | −0.63 | −1.59 | −1.48 | −1.27 | −1.63 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.20 | −0.52 | −0.20 | −1.46 | −1.18 | −1.37 | −1.28 | −1.25 | −1.25 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.17 | −0.47 | · | −0.56 | −0.50 | −1.12 | −1.83 | −1.28 | −1.14 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.20 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.47 | −1.09 | −1.05 | −1.09 | −1.07 | −1.47 |
| AI labour shock | −0.20 | −0.36 | · | −1.13 | −0.99 | −1.17 | −0.99 | −0.97 | −0.97 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.20 | −0.55 | −0.29 | · | −1.32 | −1.31 | −1.22 | −0.52 | −0.60 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.20 | −1.06 | −0.29 | · | −1.29 | −1.42 | · | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.65 | −0.10 | −0.57 | −0.26 | −0.65 | −0.69 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.10 | −0.47 | −0.08 | −0.49 | −0.47 | −0.50 | −0.54 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.43 | −0.59 | −0.49 | −0.18 | −0.21 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what San Marino is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +14.2 | 16.9 | 2.7 | 18 | 74 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +13.0 | 13.5 | 0.5 | 14 | 70 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +4.7 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 18 | 96 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.8 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −2.4 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 23 | 87 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Loser | −13.0 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 31 | 196 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −15.3 | 5.9 | 21.2 | 10 | 134 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −15.4 | 1.5 | 16.9 | 16 | 172 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −21.3 | 17.5 | 38.8 | 21 | 175 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −31.1 | 11.2 | 42.3 | 21 | 188 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −31.2 | 5.0 | 36.2 | 6 | 160 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for San Marino, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 7.8% Likely · rank 5 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 5.5% Likely · rank 2 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 5.4% Likely · rank 6 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 3.8% Possible · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.4 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 3.1% Possible · rank 5 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 2.3% Possible · rank 4 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 1 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.7% Possible · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Health system failure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 1.5% Possible · rank 17 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 14 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 7 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 58 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 0.7 |
| Food and water failure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 137 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 142 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×15 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 126 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.7 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×28 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 137 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×27 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.0 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.3 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Capable digital government | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 119 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |