São Tomé & Príncipe
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 47.8
- rank 24 of 197 · 3 years: 47.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −9.3
- rank 118 of 197 · 3 years: −9.2
- Shock absorbed
- 13%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; consumer price inflation; public debt relative to gdp; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15; services as a share of gdp; urban share of population; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in São Tomé & Príncipe’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.69 | −0.86 | −1.00 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Energy Infrastructure 0.9 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.68 | −0.77 | −0.85 | −0.40 | ▲ 2 | 22 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.77 | −0.88 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.73 | −0.73 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0.1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.79 | −0.72 | −0.88 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.57 | −0.68 | −0.77 | −0.35 | ▲ 2 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.55 | −0.61 | −0.75 | −0.33 | ▲ 5 | 22 | Energy Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.65 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.30 | 0 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.37 | −0.34 | −0.37 | −0.16 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.21 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.12 | ▲ 9 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.11 | −1.11 | −0.26 | −1.08 | −1.03 | −1.10 | −1.17 | −0.88 | −1.01 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.11 | −1.06 | −0.51 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.14 | −1.07 | −0.91 | −1.18 |
| AI labour shock | −0.11 | −0.44 | · | −1.17 | −0.95 | −1.20 | −1.02 | −1.00 | −1.00 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.11 | −0.51 | · | −0.51 | −0.46 | −1.04 | −1.70 | −1.19 | −1.06 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.11 | −0.52 | −0.56 | −0.48 | −1.01 | −1.55 | −1.27 | −0.48 | −0.54 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.11 | −0.41 | −0.22 | −0.99 | −0.84 | −0.93 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.92 | −0.20 | −0.75 | −0.34 | −0.84 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.11 | −0.54 | −0.48 | · | −1.12 | −1.13 | −1.05 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.09 | −0.62 | −0.42 | · | −0.69 | −0.71 | · | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.33 | −0.45 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what São Tomé & Príncipe is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.0 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 20 | 46 | Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 9 | 90 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −4.2 | 3.9 | 8.1 | 11 | 99 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −9.5 | 5.4 | 14.9 | 10 | 182 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −10.0 | 8.2 | 18.1 | 14 | 117 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −11.3 | 5.5 | 16.8 | 13 | 165 | Intelligence & Assessment 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −11.4 | 1.2 | 12.6 | 6 | 104 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −13.4 | 6.2 | 19.6 | 8 | 158 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −15.0 | 9.7 | 24.8 | 11 | 165 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.3 | 1.3 | 22.7 | 3 | 106 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for São Tomé & Príncipe, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 3.6% Possible · rank 59 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 2.9% Possible · rank 44 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 2.1% Possible · rank 27 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 84 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Major | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.3 |
| Food and water failure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 23 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.4 |
| Health system failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 32 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 47 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 156 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 32 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 57 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×27 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×2.7 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 177 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 177 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 178 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.4 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 177 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 178 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×2.1 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 178 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |