Gulf and Middle East · SAU

Saudi Arabia

Baseline index 11.19Rank 35 of 197TransitionalGulf and Middle EastAtlas profileAll results

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years: 8.5; rank 172 of 197 · 3 years: 8.3
Worst case: −6.3%; Cryptographic trust break · tail −5.6%
Opportunity · 10 years: +6.3; rank 52 of 197 · 3 years: +6.3
Best case: +30; Chronic disease advance · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed: 44%; by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend: +0.09; expected index points from best practice
Breadth: 9of 10; scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link: Energy Infrastructure; weakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; little renewable water per head; industry as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate; urban share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Saudi Arabia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

Cryptographic trust break (S09)

Regional war spillover (S03)

AI labour shock (S08)

Legitimacy rupture (S05)

Severe pandemic (S10)

Trade bloc rupture (S01)

Breadbasket failure (S06)

Hybrid coercion (S04)

Core disaster (S07)

Global funding seizure (S02)

−0.70

−0.61

−0.56

−0.54

−0.45

−0.40

−0.39

−0.36

−0.30

−0.16

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Bands lost	Weakest point
Cryptographic trust break S09	High 0.87	−0.70	−1.10	−0.48	20	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4.8 · Nascent
Regional war spillover S03	High 0.80	−0.61	−1.17	−0.49	21	Energy Infrastructure 8.4 · Foundational
AI labour shock S08	High 0.67	−0.56	−1.00	−0.44	20	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.2 · Inception
Legitimacy rupture S05	High 0.61	−0.54	−0.78	−0.34	15	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.1 · Inception
Severe pandemic S10	Medium 0.54	−0.45	−0.84	−0.37	17	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.1 · Foundational
Trade bloc rupture S01	Medium 0.51	−0.40	−0.76	−0.33	13	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception
Breadbasket failure S06	Medium 0.50	−0.39	−0.78	−0.34	13	Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
Hybrid coercion S04	Medium 0.60	−0.36	−0.66	−0.29	11	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.1 · Foundational
Core disaster S07	Medium 0.43	−0.30	−0.59	−0.26	10	Energy Infrastructure 9 · Foundational
Global funding seizure S02	Low 0.25	−0.16	−0.32	−0.14	5	Labour & Employment 9.4 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT Critical Technology	SI Strategic Infrastructure	NS National Security	HC Human Capital	II Information & Influence	GI Governance & Integrity	FS Financial Strength	PI Production & Innovation	TI Trade & Investment
Cryptographic trust break	−0.91	−0.50	−0.91	·	−1.11	−1.04	−0.97	−0.42	−0.48
Regional war spillover	−0.35	−0.82	−0.75	−0.31	−0.31	−0.79	−0.73	−0.63	−0.81
AI labour shock	−0.62	−0.28	·	−0.75	−0.66	−0.77	−0.66	−0.64	−0.64
Legitimacy rupture	−0.31	−0.34	−0.62	−0.31	−0.73	−1.02	−0.83	−0.31	−0.36
Severe pandemic	−0.48	−0.24	−0.20	−0.58	−0.51	−0.55	−0.51	−0.50	−0.50
Trade bloc rupture	−0.52	−0.20	−0.18	−0.20	−0.47	−0.45	−0.47	−0.46	−0.63
Breadbasket failure	−0.21	−0.49	−0.17	−0.46	−0.44	−0.47	−0.50	−0.38	−0.43
Hybrid coercion	−0.27	−0.59	−0.59	·	−0.65	−0.67	·	−0.25	−0.25
Core disaster	−0.02	−0.45	−0.14	−0.36	−0.16	−0.40	−0.43	−0.37	−0.37
Global funding seizure	−0.10	−0.10	·	−0.11	−0.10	−0.21	−0.35	−0.24	−0.22

Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Saudi Arabia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗	Gainer	+30.4	40.2	9.8	51	22	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗	Gainer	+24.2	27.5	3.3	51	55	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗	Gainer	+19.7	21.8	2.1	51	20	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S14 ↗	Gainer	+10.6	33.3	22.7	46	62	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.5 · Foundational
Great-power détente S13 ↗	Mixed	+5.8	15.4	9.6	37	34	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent
Automated discovery step S17 ↗	Mixed	+3.0	20.2	17.2	31	44	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent
Market access opening S12 ↗	Mixed	+1.3	22.5	21.3	54	64	Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
Public service leap S18 ↗	Mixed	−4.9	13.4	18.4	40	98	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
Debt service reset S11 ↗	Mixed	−8.8	0.8	9.6	42	187	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
Clean power threshold S15 ↗	Loser	−22.8	16.4	39.2	49	166	Energy Technologies 7.4 · Foundational

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Saudi Arabia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failure	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Breakdown of state function	10.6 Transitional → Foundational	1.6% Possible · rank 156	Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail	×2.7	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3
Loss of financial stability	13.8 Established → Transitional	0.8% Unlikely · rank 164	Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.9	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Broad fall in governance and integrity	9.3 Transitional → Foundational	0.8% Unlikely · rank 153	Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.9	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Breakdown of information trust	10.2 Transitional → Foundational	0.6% Unlikely · rank 78	Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail	×2.7	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3
Rupture in trade and supply	13.2 Established → Transitional	0.6% Unlikely · rank 117	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.7	Energy Infrastructure 9.6
Collapse in energy security	11.5 Transitional → Foundational	0.6% Unlikely · rank 61	Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail	×2.9	Energy Infrastructure 9.6
Strategic awareness failure	9.6 Transitional → Foundational	0.5% Unlikely · rank 68	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.2	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Rule of law failure	7.1 Foundational → Nascent	0.4% Unlikely · rank 143	Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×2.7	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Broad fall in financial strength	13.5 Established → Transitional	0.4% Unlikely · rank 169	Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×3.1	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Broad fall in national security	10.4 Transitional → Foundational	0.3% Unlikely · rank 46	Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×3.3	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Defence readiness failure	12.3 Established → Transitional	0.3% Unlikely · rank 45	Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail	×3.6	Energy Infrastructure 9.6
Broad fall in information and influence	12.3 Established → Foundational	0.3% Unlikely · rank 94	Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×2.7	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Diplomatic isolation	13.8 Established → Transitional	0.3% Unlikely · rank 92	Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×2.7	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Failure of digital lifelines	12.1 Established → Foundational	0.2% Unlikely · rank 64	Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×2.7	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Food and water failure	13.9 Established → Transitional	0.2% Remote · rank 133	Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail	×4.0	National Resilience & Crisis Management 12.6
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure	13.5 Established → Transitional	0.2% Remote · rank 104	Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail	×3.7	Energy Infrastructure 9.6
Broad fall in trade and investment	12.6 Established → Transitional	0.2% Remote · rank 143	Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail	×3.7	Energy Infrastructure 9.6
Health system failure	12.0 Established → Foundational	0.1% Remote · rank 189	Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×3.4	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Loss of advanced technology base	5.0 Nascent → Inception	under 0.1% Remote · rank 44	Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×3.6	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Broad fall in critical technology	6.3 Foundational → Nascent	under 0.1% Remote · rank 49	Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×3.3	Quantum Technologies 4.8
Broad fall in human capital	11.7 Transitional → Foundational	under 0.1% Remote · rank 137	Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×4.0	Artificial Intelligence 9.7
Broad fall in production and innovation	11.1 Transitional → Foundational	under 0.1% Remote · rank 152	Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×4.7	Artificial Intelligence 9.7
Loss of industrial capacity	12.0 Established → Transitional	under 0.1% Remote · rank 161	Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×4.7	Artificial Intelligence 9.7
Education pipeline failure	12.0 Transitional → Foundational	under 0.1% Remote · rank 155	Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×4.3	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Loss of strategic deterrence	6.4 Foundational → Nascent	under 0.1% Remote · rank 40	Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×4.8	Energy Infrastructure 9.6

Routes to prosperity	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Stronger health and biotechnology	10.7 Transitional → Established	3.3% Possible · rank 39	Chronic disease advance Extreme	×1.5	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Broad rise in governance and integrity	9.3 Transitional → Transitional	1.1% Possible · rank 44	Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×2.0	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Capable digital government	13.4 Established → Advanced	0.9% Unlikely · rank 51	Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×1.9	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Trusted public institutions	8.0 Foundational → Transitional	0.8% Unlikely · rank 49	Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×2.0	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Frontier AI and compute	6.5 Foundational → Foundational	0.4% Unlikely · rank 47	Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme	×2.5	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Reliable low-cost energy	8.5 Foundational → Transitional	0.3% Unlikely · rank 50	Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme	×2.0	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.5
Broad rise in critical technology	6.3 Foundational → Foundational	0.3% Unlikely · rank 47	Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme	×2.3	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Broad rise in human capital	11.7 Transitional → Established	0.3% Unlikely · rank 49	Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×2.2	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Wider international influence	13.8 Established → Advanced	0.3% Unlikely · rank 27	Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme	×1.8	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.5
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure	13.5 Established → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 52	Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme	×2.3	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.5
Secure food and water supply	13.9 Established → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 51	Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme	×2.3	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Adaptable skilled workforce	10.6 Transitional → Established	under 0.1% Remote · rank 45	Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.8	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Research translated into value	11.2 Transitional → Established	under 0.1% Remote · rank 51	Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme	×3.0	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3
Broad rise in financial strength	13.5 Established → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 45	Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme	×2.1	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Broad rise in information and influence	12.3 Established → Established	under 0.1% Remote · rank 44	Great-power détente Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme	×2.3	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.5
Broad rise in trade and investment	12.6 Established → Established	under 0.1% Remote · rank 59	Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.8	Energy Infrastructure 9.6
Higher-value international business	12.2 Established → Established	under 0.1% Remote · rank 63	Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.7	Energy Infrastructure 9.6
Broad rise in national security	10.4 Transitional	— No route · rank 36	No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5	×2.7	—
Broad rise in production and innovation	11.1 Transitional	— No route · rank 55	No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5	×3.6	—
Assured space services	6.7 Foundational	— No route · rank 38	No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5	×4.0	—
Higher-value manufacturing	9.3 Transitional	— No route · rank 52	No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5	×3.3	—
More deployable joint force	12.1 Established	— No route · rank 35	No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5	×3.0	—
Stronger information environment	10.8 Transitional → Established	— Remote · rank 52	Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.7	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8
Deeper long-term finance	13.8 Established	— No route · rank 53	No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5	×2.8	—
Sophisticated export strength	11.8 Transitional	— No route · rank 54	No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5	×3.3	—