Senegal
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 20.1
- rank 107 of 197 · 3 years: 19.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +1.0
- rank 66 of 197 · 3 years: +1.1
- Shock absorbed
- 27%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.23
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged under 15; staple foods among the top five imports; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Senegal’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.87 | −0.96 | −1.37 | −0.60 | ▼ 10 | 30 | Energy Infrastructure 4.3 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.68 | −0.71 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▲ 2 | 26 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.5 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.56 | −0.62 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▲ 1 | 25 | Artificial Intelligence 1.7 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.55 | −0.62 | −0.85 | −0.37 | ▲ 2 | 25 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.58 | −0.61 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▲ 1 | 21 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.64 | −0.57 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Labour & Employment 4.6 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.64 | −0.56 | −0.83 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.57 | −0.55 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.40 | −0.44 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 2 | 18 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.33 | −0.28 | −0.37 | −0.16 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.49 | −1.20 | −0.42 | −1.13 | −1.08 | −1.15 | −1.23 | −0.92 | −1.06 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.39 | −0.95 | −0.88 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.85 | −0.73 | −0.94 |
| AI labour shock | −0.66 | −0.32 | · | −0.84 | −0.74 | −0.87 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.63 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.80 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.74 | −0.43 | −0.80 | · | −0.97 | −0.91 | −0.85 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.33 | −0.37 | · | −0.38 | −0.34 | −0.76 | −1.25 | −0.87 | −0.78 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.32 | −0.36 | −0.65 | −0.33 | −0.76 | −1.06 | −0.87 | −0.33 | −0.37 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.83 | −0.27 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.54 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.52 | −0.50 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.70 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.21 | −0.45 | −0.45 | · | −0.50 | −0.52 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Senegal is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +22.3 | 25.5 | 3.2 | 30 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +13.0 | 19.1 | 6.0 | 36 | 4 | Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +5.9 | 17.5 | 11.5 | 34 | 88 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.5 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +4.8 | 15.8 | 10.9 | 30 | 107 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +4.3 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 22 | 110 | Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.1 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 31 | 68 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +1.2 | 21.5 | 20.3 | 24 | 68 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −4.7 | 24.0 | 28.7 | 34 | 87 | Technical & Vocational Skills 6 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −4.8 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 19 | 66 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.2 | 5.2 | 27.4 | 12 | 111 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Senegal, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 2.3% Possible · rank 71 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 2.1% Possible · rank 118 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Food and water failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Health system failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 27 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 113 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 92 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 4.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 149 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 54 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 81 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 47 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 135 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 90 | Global funding seizure Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 97 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 93 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 42 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 25 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 125 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 74 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 81 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Maritime Power 4.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 104 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.6 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 100 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 92 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 92 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 92 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 8.1 Foundational → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 68 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.2 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 42 | Market access opening Severe + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 68 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.8 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.2 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Technical & Vocational Skills 6 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.2 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 69 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.9 | Energy Technologies 2.2 |
| Higher-value international business | 6.7 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 60 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 6 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |