Serbia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 15.2
- rank 133 of 197 · 3 years: 15.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +4.4
- rank 59 of 197 · 3 years: +4.6
- Shock absorbed
- 35%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.21
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 7of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; youth unemployment rate; remittances relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Serbia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.88 | −0.88 | −1.27 | −0.56 | ▼ 3 | 27 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.78 | −0.76 | −1.22 | −0.53 | ▼ 1 | 26 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.3 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.79 | −0.75 | −1.17 | −0.51 | 0 | 27 | Artificial Intelligence 4.5 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.84 | −0.75 | −1.07 | −0.47 | 0 | 22 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.58 | −0.57 | −0.87 | −0.38 | 0 | 23 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.71 | −0.55 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.71 | −0.52 | −0.77 | −0.34 | 0 | 16 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.59 | −0.48 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.9 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.47 | −0.38 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 3 | 18 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8.2 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.25 | −0.25 | −0.39 | −0.17 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.8 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.50 | −1.18 | −1.03 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −1.13 | −1.06 | −0.91 | −1.17 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.81 | −0.41 | −0.33 | −0.98 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| AI labour shock | −0.83 | −0.38 | · | −1.01 | −0.88 | −1.04 | −0.88 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.98 | −0.53 | −0.98 | · | −1.18 | −1.11 | −1.04 | −0.44 | −0.51 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.75 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.29 | −0.67 | −0.65 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.90 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.33 | −0.36 | · | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.74 | −1.21 | −0.85 | −0.75 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.39 | −0.84 | −0.83 | · | −0.93 | −0.96 | · | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.28 | −0.31 | −0.56 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.90 | −0.74 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.58 | −0.19 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.55 | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.27 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Serbia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +29.4 | 31.7 | 2.3 | 42 | 48 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +27.4 | 27.8 | 0.4 | 34 | 33 | Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +20.7 | 22.0 | 1.3 | 46 | 39 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +5.2 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 39 | 54 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.4 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −0.3 | 22.0 | 22.3 | 26 | 48 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 21.3 | 22.8 | 48 | 72 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −2.6 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 29 | 58 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −3.9 | 30.8 | 34.7 | 44 | 98 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −4.7 | 7.6 | 12.3 | 42 | 124 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −5.0 | 5.8 | 10.9 | 50 | 164 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Serbia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 3.7% Possible · rank 52 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 2.3% Possible · rank 72 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 2.2% Possible · rank 33 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 14 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.6% Possible · rank 59 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 9.1 Transitional → Foundational | 1.5% Possible · rank 15 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 65 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 39 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 42 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 37 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 37 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 36 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 20 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 37 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 42 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Health system failure | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 124 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 66 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 1.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 49 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 23 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Food and water failure | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 158 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.1 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 70 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 89 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 1.8% Possible · rank 52 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 6.6 Foundational → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 47 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.8 | Energy Technologies 4 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.7 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 57 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 4.4 Nascent → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 49 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 |
| Capable digital government | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 65 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 61 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 4.8 Nascent → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 49 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Research translated into value | 9.6 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 49 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.3 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 8.3 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 |
| Higher-value international business | 9.4 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.8 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 61 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Technologies 4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 62 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 58 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 8.3 Foundational → Transitional | — Remote · rank 60 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Assured space services | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 58 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 58 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | — Remote · rank 59 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 |
| Wider international influence | 7.4 Foundational → Transitional | — Remote · rank 64 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 60 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |