Seychelles
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 26.1
- rank 83 of 197 · 3 years: 25.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −2.7
- rank 77 of 197 · 3 years: −2.7
- Shock absorbed
- 24%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.26
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Seychelles’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.85 | −0.92 | −1.13 | −0.52 | ▼ 1 | 24 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.79 | −0.84 | −1.11 | −0.50 | 0 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.70 | −0.72 | −0.95 | −0.43 | 0 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.81 | −0.69 | −0.97 | −0.43 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.71 | −0.67 | −0.79 | −0.36 | 0 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.64 | −0.58 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.65 | −0.55 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.49 | −0.53 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.49 | −0.53 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.40 | −0.36 | −0.42 | −0.19 | 0 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.21 | −1.26 | −0.96 | −0.51 | −0.51 | −1.29 | −1.20 | −1.03 | −1.32 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.29 | −0.49 | −0.39 | −1.19 | −1.04 | −1.11 | −1.04 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| AI labour shock | −0.28 | −0.39 | · | −1.05 | −0.92 | −1.08 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.19 | −0.47 | · | −0.48 | −0.43 | −0.97 | −1.58 | −1.11 | −0.98 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.29 | −0.54 | −0.89 | · | −1.19 | −1.12 | −1.04 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.88 | −0.28 | −0.70 | −0.31 | −0.78 | −0.84 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.63 | −0.33 | −0.77 | −1.08 | −0.88 | −0.33 | −0.38 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.26 | −0.29 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.69 | −0.66 | −0.69 | −0.67 | −0.93 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.69 | −0.24 | −0.64 | −0.61 | −0.66 | −0.70 | −0.53 | −0.60 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.60 | −0.59 | · | −0.67 | −0.69 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Seychelles is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.7 | 11.2 | 1.5 | 15 | 83 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +5.6 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 19 | 71 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +5.5 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 24 | 91 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.8 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +3.6 | 14.7 | 11.1 | 19 | 119 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.0 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 33 | 83 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −0.5 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 27 | 71 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −4.6 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 12 | 63 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.3 | 12.4 | 18.7 | 21 | 107 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −14.3 | 9.7 | 24.0 | 22 | 152 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −16.7 | 3.1 | 19.8 | 6 | 83 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Seychelles, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 3.1% Possible · rank 75 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 2.9% Possible · rank 37 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 2.2% Possible · rank 19 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.9% Possible · rank 52 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 34 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Health system failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 21 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 27 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 66 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 26 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 30 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.2 |
| Food and water failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 69 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 25 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 46 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 158 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 139 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 158 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×10 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 156 | Cryptographic trust break Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 131 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 119 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Capable digital government | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 113 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |