Singapore
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 6.7
- rank 182 of 197 · 3 years: 6.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +38.8
- rank 4 of 197 · 3 years: +38.5
- Shock absorbed
- 60%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.03
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; public debt relative to gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Singapore’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −0.71 | −1.45 | −0.59 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Resource Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.94 | −0.56 | −1.45 | −0.55 | 0 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.2 · Established |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.91 | −0.48 | −1.16 | −0.45 | 0 | 12 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 10.6 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.79 | −0.45 | −1.18 | −0.44 | 0 | 13 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 12.2 · Established |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.87 | −0.45 | −1.30 | −0.45 | 0 | 13 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10.1 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.79 | −0.41 | −0.87 | −0.37 | 0 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 8.5 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.75 | −0.31 | −0.93 | −0.31 | 0 | 11 | Economic Output & Productivity 13.8 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.60 | −0.29 | −0.84 | −0.29 | 0 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 9 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.42 | −0.24 | −0.66 | −0.22 | 0 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 9.2 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.37 | −0.23 | −0.48 | −0.20 | 0 | 12 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 9.8 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.40 | −0.95 | −0.88 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.73 | −0.94 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.60 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.72 | −0.63 | −0.68 | −0.63 | −0.62 | −0.62 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.62 | −0.34 | −0.62 | · | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.59 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.53 | −0.51 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.72 |
| AI labour shock | −0.50 | −0.23 | · | −0.61 | −0.53 | −0.63 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.31 | −0.67 | −0.67 | · | −0.74 | −0.77 | · | −0.28 | −0.28 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.19 | −0.20 | · | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.42 | −0.68 | −0.48 | −0.43 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.44 | −0.14 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.42 | −0.36 | −0.36 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.26 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.16 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Singapore is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +70.0 | 70.8 | 0.8 | 78 | 1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · Established |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +61.1 | 65.4 | 4.3 | 72 | 5 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1 · Established |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +49.0 | 57.2 | 8.2 | 77 | 3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +46.0 | 48.7 | 2.7 | 58 | 15 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +36.9 | 43.5 | 6.5 | 67 | 1 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +32.2 | 39.8 | 7.6 | 79 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 14.4 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +29.0 | 30.8 | 1.8 | 62 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +22.2 | 25.3 | 3.0 | 68 | 16 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +12.1 | 20.3 | 8.1 | 66 | 26 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 10.3 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 64 | 113 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Singapore, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 16.1 Advanced → Established | 2.3% Possible · rank 112 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 |
| Loss of financial stability | 17.7 Advanced → Established | 1.4% Possible · rank 125 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 15.2 Advanced → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 111 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 40 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Quantum Technologies 13 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 18.2 Frontier → Advanced | 1.1% Possible · rank 70 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 38 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 17.8 Advanced → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 128 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×3.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 17 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 18.1 Frontier → Advanced | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 45 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 73 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 13 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 49 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 13 |
| Rule of law failure | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 101 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 13 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 14.5 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 33 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 59 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 13 |
| Broad fall in national security | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 24 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 14.7 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 25 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Health system failure | 17.0 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 104 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 15.2 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 43 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 16.6 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 38 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 13 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 47 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 9 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.8 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 |
| Food and water failure | 14.6 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 110 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×4.1 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 26 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.4 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 17.2 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 17.2 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 59 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 18 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier AI and compute | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 20% Likely · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 12.6 Established → Established | 17% Likely · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.0 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1 |
| Research translated into value | 17.2 Advanced → Frontier | 17% Likely · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1 · reaches Frontier |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 16.1 Advanced → Advanced | 16% Likely · rank 12 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×0.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Trusted public institutions | 14.4 Established → Advanced | 15% Likely · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 17.5 Advanced → Frontier | 15% Likely · rank 3 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Major | ×0.9 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | 13% Likely · rank 12 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.0 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 16.2 Advanced → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 3 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.0 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 9.8% Likely · rank 17 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 9.4% Likely · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Secure food and water supply | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 8.3% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Capable digital government | 18.1 Frontier → Frontier | 8.2% Likely · rank 22 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value international business | 18.1 Frontier → Frontier | 7.5% Likely · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 7.4% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in human capital | 17.2 Advanced → Frontier | 7.0% Likely · rank 12 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Assured space services | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | 7.0% Likely · rank 3 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Wider international influence | 13.0 Established → Established | 5.5% Likely · rank 2 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.1 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 13.1 Established → Established | 5.3% Likely · rank 2 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Stronger information environment | 13.3 Established → Established | 4.5% Possible · rank 2 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 |
| Broad rise in national security | 12.1 Established → Established | 3.1% Possible · rank 3 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1 |
| More deployable joint force | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 3.1% Possible · rank 3 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13.1 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 18.1 Frontier → Frontier | 2.6% Possible · rank 23 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Deeper long-term finance | 17.8 Advanced → Frontier | 2.1% Possible · rank 14 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 17.8 Advanced → Frontier | 1.3% Possible · rank 19 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.8 | Resource Infrastructure 8.8 · reaches Frontier |