Solomon Islands
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 48.6
- rank 23 of 197 · 3 years: 48.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −13.3
- rank 154 of 197 · 3 years: −12.5
- Shock absorbed
- 13%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of exports going to china and the united states; low real gdp per head; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Solomon Islands’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.91 | −1.00 | −1.12 | −0.53 | ▼ 6 | 20 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.80 | −0.89 | −1.09 | −0.48 | ▼ 4 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 0.5 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.74 | −0.83 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 4 | 14 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.62 | −0.72 | −0.82 | −0.37 | 0 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.55 | −0.66 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.67 | −0.64 | −0.69 | −0.32 | 0 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.57 | −0.55 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 6 | 9 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.3 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.58 | −0.51 | −0.56 | −0.26 | ▼ 3 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Low 0.33 | −0.33 | −0.39 | −0.17 | ▲ 8 | 8 | Economic Output & Productivity 1.7 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.21 | −0.27 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 13 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.13 | −1.39 | −0.71 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −1.48 | −1.38 | −1.18 | −1.52 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.30 | −0.34 | −1.09 | −0.49 | −1.22 | −1.30 | −1.12 | −1.12 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.13 | −0.47 | −0.34 | −0.49 | −1.14 | −1.10 | −1.14 | −1.12 | −1.54 |
| AI labour shock | −0.13 | −0.40 | · | −1.09 | −0.95 | −1.12 | −0.95 | −0.93 | −0.93 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.13 | −0.39 | −0.25 | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.13 | −0.54 | −0.63 | · | −1.23 | −1.15 | −1.08 | −0.46 | −0.53 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.12 | −0.38 | −0.53 | −0.34 | −0.80 | −1.11 | −0.91 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.13 | −0.88 | −0.68 | · | −1.03 | −1.06 | · | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.08 | −0.23 | · | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.46 | −0.75 | −0.53 | −0.47 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.07 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.33 | −0.31 | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Solomon Islands is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +5.0 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 14 | 94 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.5 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +5.0 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 8 | 108 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 10 | 139 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −4.9 | 3.2 | 8.1 | 19 | 161 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −9.1 | 8.9 | 18.0 | 11 | 124 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −12.6 | 3.9 | 16.5 | 9 | 160 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −14.3 | 10.7 | 25.0 | 15 | 135 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −20.8 | 6.8 | 27.6 | 11 | 174 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −27.5 | 1.9 | 29.4 | 3 | 146 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −41.0 | 5.6 | 46.6 | 8 | 196 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Solomon Islands, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 3.4% Possible · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 85 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 73 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Major | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 33 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.5 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 122 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Health system failure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 92 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Food and water failure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 150 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 147 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 170 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 182 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 187 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×23 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 178 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 178 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 175 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |