Somalia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 95.3
- rank 2 of 197 · 3 years: 95.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −13.1
- rank 152 of 197 · 3 years: −13.1
- Shock absorbed
- 5%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.34
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 0of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; youth unemployment rate; remittances relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Somalia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.96 | −1.17 | −1.21 | −0.63 | ▼ 2 | 4 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.94 | −0.96 | −1.00 | −0.51 | ▼ 1 | 6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.78 | −0.90 | −0.95 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 6 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.85 | −0.81 | −0.84 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 4 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.57 | −0.73 | −0.78 | −0.35 | 0 | 3 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.58 | −0.73 | −0.79 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.44 | −0.54 | −0.57 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 2 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.43 | −0.52 | −0.54 | −0.25 | ▼ 1 | 2 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.45 | −0.49 | −0.50 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 3 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.26 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.12 | ▲ 2 | 3 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −1.38 | −0.60 | −1.50 | −1.48 | −1.44 | −1.56 | −1.15 | −1.27 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.13 | −0.72 | −1.12 | −0.65 | −1.30 | −1.81 | −1.55 | −0.63 | −0.75 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.13 | −1.18 | −0.99 | −0.54 | −0.54 | −1.34 | −1.22 | −0.99 | −1.18 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.13 | −0.66 | · | −0.66 | −0.60 | −1.27 | −1.71 | −1.11 | −1.13 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.08 | −0.35 | −0.87 | −0.39 | −0.98 | −1.05 | −0.86 | −0.90 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.13 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −1.07 | −0.94 | −1.00 | −0.94 | −0.79 | −0.92 |
| AI labour shock | −0.13 | −0.31 | · | −0.80 | −0.72 | −0.82 | −0.72 | −0.66 | −0.71 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.71 | −0.68 | −0.86 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.13 | −0.39 | −0.71 | · | −0.87 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.32 | −0.37 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.07 | −0.43 | −0.43 | · | −0.48 | −0.50 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Somalia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 5 | 125 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −0.3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5 | 107 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −1.6 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 10 | 132 | Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.8 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 7 | 138 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −4.9 | 1.4 | 6.3 | 5 | 104 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −13.0 | 1.4 | 14.4 | 4 | 110 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −15.3 | 2.4 | 17.6 | 4 | 194 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −25.3 | 6.0 | 31.2 | 6 | 193 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −26.8 | 5.2 | 32.0 | 7 | 176 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −35.6 | 0.6 | 36.2 | 2 | 176 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Somalia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×23 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Broad fall in human capital | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Food and water failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.4 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Education pipeline failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Health system failure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 196 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.6 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Breakdown of state function | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.5 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.6 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×22 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Capable digital government | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 195 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |