Indo-Pacific · KOR

South Korea

Baseline index 16.00Rank 6 of 197AdvancedIndo-PacificAtlas profileAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years
5.9
rank 188 of 197 · 3 years: 5.9
Worst case
−3.6%
Regional war spillover · tail −3.3%
Opportunity · 10 years
+41.7
rank 2 of 197 · 3 years: +41.5
Best case
+68
Automated discovery step · gainer in 9 of 10
Shock absorbed
61%
by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend
+0.01
expected index points from best practice
Breadth
5of 10
scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
weakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; urban share of population; share of exports going to china and the united states; industry as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in South Korea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

Regional war spillover (S03)
Core disaster (S07)
Severe pandemic (S10)
Trade bloc rupture (S01)
AI labour shock (S08)
Cryptographic trust break (S09)
Hybrid coercion (S04)
Global funding seizure (S02)
Breadbasket failure (S06)
Legitimacy rupture (S05)

−0.57

−0.50

−0.49

−0.48

−0.46

−0.45

−0.35

−0.26

−0.23

−0.21

ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Regional war spillover S03High 0.92−0.57−1.36−0.54013Resource Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
Core disaster S07High 0.96−0.50−1.35−0.50010Energy Infrastructure 15.1 · Advanced
Severe pandemic S10High 0.83−0.49−1.30−0.4909Labour & Employment 14 · Established
Trade bloc rupture S01High 0.80−0.48−1.19−0.4708Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.5 · Established
AI labour shock S08High 0.82−0.46−1.23−0.4609Labour & Employment 14.1 · Established
Cryptographic trust break S09High 0.89−0.45−1.14−0.45012Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.4 · Established
Hybrid coercion S04High 0.77−0.35−0.86−0.35012Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.7 · Established
Global funding seizure S02Medium 0.51−0.26−0.64−0.2506Labour & Employment 14.4 · Established
Breadbasket failure S06Medium 0.36−0.23−0.57−0.2206Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.1 · Established
Legitimacy rupture S05Medium 0.38−0.21−0.50−0.2107Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14.5 · Established

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCT Critical TechnologySI Strategic InfrastructureNS National SecurityHC Human CapitalII Information & InfluenceGI Governance & IntegrityFS Financial StrengthPI Production & InnovationTI Trade & Investment
Regional war spillover−0.32−0.76−0.76−0.29−0.29−0.73−0.68−0.58−0.75
Core disaster−0.03−0.75−0.27−0.60−0.27−0.67−0.72−0.61−0.61
Severe pandemic−0.52−0.26−0.24−0.63−0.55−0.59−0.55−0.54−0.54
Trade bloc rupture−0.63−0.24−0.24−0.24−0.56−0.54−0.56−0.55−0.76
AI labour shock−0.51−0.23·−0.62−0.55−0.64−0.55−0.53−0.53
Cryptographic trust break−0.58−0.32−0.63·−0.70−0.66−0.62−0.26−0.30
Hybrid coercion−0.25−0.55−0.60·−0.61−0.63·−0.23−0.23
Global funding seizure−0.15−0.17·−0.17−0.15−0.35−0.56−0.40−0.35
Breadbasket failure−0.12−0.28−0.11−0.26−0.25−0.27−0.29−0.21−0.25
Legitimacy rupture−0.12−0.13−0.26−0.12−0.28−0.39−0.32−0.12−0.14
Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what South Korea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Automated discovery step S17 ↗Gainer+67.975.57.6822Artificial Intelligence 16 · Advanced
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗Gainer+63.964.90.9816Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 · Advanced
Clean power threshold S15 ↗Gainer+61.063.92.9703Resource Infrastructure 11.8 · Transitional
Great-power détente S13 ↗Gainer+50.160.710.6782Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · Established
Middle East settlement S14 ↗Gainer+34.936.92.07611Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · Established
Market access opening S12 ↗Gainer+31.140.79.6804Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗Gainer+28.241.613.48325Biotechnology & Health Technologies 16.2 · Advanced
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗Gainer+26.029.23.2808Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
Public service leap S18 ↗Gainer+21.727.15.4786Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15 · Advanced
Debt service reset S11 ↗Mixed+2.74.82.17962Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15 · Advanced

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for South Korea, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failureBasketLikelihoodMost likely routeHeadroomLever
Breakdown of state function16.3 Advanced → Established2.0% Possible · rank 127Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×3.4Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
Loss of financial stability16.6 Advanced → Established1.1% Possible · rank 148Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail×3.7National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.2
Broad fall in governance and integrity15.8 Advanced → Established1.0% Unlikely · rank 128Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×4.1Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Collapse in energy security14.8 Established → Transitional0.9% Unlikely · rank 45Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail×3.1Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Strategic awareness failure15.9 Advanced → Established0.7% Unlikely · rank 57Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.4Quantum Technologies 14.3
Rupture in trade and supply16.7 Advanced → Established0.7% Unlikely · rank 108Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail×3.0Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Broad fall in financial strength16.1 Advanced → Established0.6% Unlikely · rank 147Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail×4.2Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Broad fall in trade and investment16.7 Advanced → Established0.6% Unlikely · rank 62Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail×4.0Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.2
Breakdown of information trust15.9 Advanced → Established0.5% Unlikely · rank 98Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.3Quantum Technologies 14.3
Diplomatic isolation15.0 Advanced → Transitional0.5% Unlikely · rank 61Trade bloc rupture Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×4.3Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.2
Broad fall in national security14.4 Established → Transitional0.5% Unlikely · rank 25Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×4.0Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure16.3 Advanced → Established0.5% Unlikely · rank 44Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×4.0Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Broad fall in information and influence15.5 Advanced → Established0.5% Unlikely · rank 71Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.3Quantum Technologies 14.3
Rule of law failure15.1 Advanced → Transitional0.4% Unlikely · rank 146Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.3Quantum Technologies 14.3
Defence readiness failure16.4 Advanced → Established0.4% Unlikely · rank 38Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×4.1Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Failure of digital lifelines17.0 Advanced → Established0.4% Unlikely · rank 48Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.3Quantum Technologies 14.3
Loss of industrial capacity16.6 Advanced → Established0.3% Unlikely · rank 76Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail×4.5National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.2
Broad fall in critical technology16.1 Advanced → Established0.3% Unlikely · rank 13Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.8Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.2
Broad fall in production and innovation16.6 Advanced → Established0.3% Unlikely · rank 74Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail×4.9Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Food and water failure16.3 Advanced → Established0.3% Unlikely · rank 100Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail×3.7National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.2
Health system failure16.3 Advanced → Established0.3% Unlikely · rank 168Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail×3.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
Loss of advanced technology base15.8 Advanced → Established0.2% Remote · rank 24Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.1Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.2
Broad fall in human capital16.5 Advanced → Established0.1% Remote · rank 79Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×4.7Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
Loss of strategic deterrence10.4 Transitional → Foundational0.1% Remote · rank 7Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail×3.9Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Education pipeline failure16.7 Advanced → Establishedunder 0.1% Remote · rank 110Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×5.0Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
Routes to prosperityBasketLikelihoodMost likely routeHeadroomLever
Stronger health and biotechnology16.3 Advanced → Advanced26% Highly likely · rank 4Automated discovery step Severe×0.9Artificial Intelligence 16
Reliable low-cost energy16.4 Advanced → Frontier23% Likely · rank 1Clean power threshold Severe×0.8Resource Infrastructure 11.8 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in critical technology16.1 Advanced → Advanced22% Likely · rank 3Automated discovery step Severe×0.9Artificial Intelligence 16
Frontier AI and compute16.8 Advanced → Frontier22% Likely · rank 4Automated discovery step Severe×0.7Artificial Intelligence 16 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in trade and investment16.7 Advanced → Frontier22% Likely · rank 1Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Major×1.0Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in governance and integrity15.8 Advanced → Advanced21% Likely · rank 1Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.1Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
Capable digital government17.4 Advanced → Frontier20% Likely · rank 4Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.1Artificial Intelligence 16 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in production and innovation16.6 Advanced → Frontier19% Likely · rank 1Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Major×1.2Artificial Intelligence 16 · reaches Frontier
Sophisticated export strength17.1 Advanced → Frontier19% Likely · rank 1Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Major×0.8Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · reaches Frontier
Trusted public institutions15.4 Advanced → Advanced19% Likely · rank 5Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.1Artificial Intelligence 16
Higher-value manufacturing17.1 Advanced → Frontier18% Likely · rank 2Automated discovery step Severe×0.9Artificial Intelligence 16 · reaches Frontier
Research translated into value17.3 Advanced → Frontier17% Likely · rank 5Automated discovery step Severe×0.8Artificial Intelligence 16 · reaches Frontier
Higher-value international business16.1 Advanced → Frontier17% Likely · rank 1Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major×1.2Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure16.3 Advanced → Frontier12% Likely · rank 1Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe×1.2Artificial Intelligence 16 · reaches Frontier
Secure food and water supply16.3 Advanced → Advanced11% Likely · rank 1Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe×1.3Artificial Intelligence 16
Adaptable skilled workforce15.9 Advanced → Advanced9.1% Likely · rank 2Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
Broad rise in human capital16.5 Advanced → Frontier8.3% Likely · rank 8Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7 · reaches Frontier
Assured space services15.1 Advanced → Advanced8.1% Likely · rank 1Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe×1.3Artificial Intelligence 16
Broad rise in national security14.4 Established → Advanced6.6% Likely · rank 1Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major×1.3Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
More deployable joint force16.1 Advanced → Advanced6.6% Likely · rank 1Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major×1.3Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
Wider international influence15.0 Advanced → Advanced6.0% Likely · rank 1Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major×1.0Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
Broad rise in information and influence15.5 Advanced → Advanced5.3% Likely · rank 1Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major×1.2Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14.5
Stronger information environment16.0 Advanced → Advanced4.5% Possible · rank 1Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 15.7
Deeper long-term finance15.9 Advanced → Advanced4.5% Possible · rank 2Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Major×1.3Resource Infrastructure 11.8
Broad rise in financial strength16.1 Advanced → Advanced4.1% Possible · rank 8Clean power threshold Extreme×1.3Resource Infrastructure 11.8