Sudan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 56.0
- rank 16 of 197 · 3 years: 55.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −14.8
- rank 162 of 197 · 3 years: −14.8
- Shock absorbed
- 9%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.34
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; few months of imports covered by reserves; consumer price inflation; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Sudan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.97 | −1.31 | −1.46 | −0.66 | ▼ 7 | 23 | Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.88 | −1.01 | −1.08 | −0.49 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.78 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.42 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.48 | −0.62 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.44 | −0.60 | −0.66 | −0.30 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.43 | −0.55 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 0.2 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.45 | −0.55 | −0.63 | −0.27 | ▲ 3 | 15 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 1.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.47 | −0.53 | −0.56 | −0.26 | 0 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.33 | −0.44 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.24 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.12 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.49 | −1.66 | −0.57 | −1.56 | −1.49 | −1.59 | −1.65 | −1.28 | −1.46 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.44 | −0.67 | −1.22 | −0.61 | −1.35 | −1.89 | −1.60 | −0.61 | −0.69 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.41 | −0.59 | · | −0.60 | −0.54 | −1.21 | −1.81 | −1.39 | −1.16 |
| AI labour shock | −0.46 | −0.33 | · | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.50 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.80 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.28 | −0.74 | −0.68 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.57 | −0.73 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.83 | −0.27 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.46 | −0.40 | −0.72 | · | −0.88 | −0.82 | −0.77 | −0.33 | −0.38 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.23 | −0.53 | −0.51 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.71 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.39 | · | −0.43 | −0.44 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Sudan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.2 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 11 | 66 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.0 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 11 | 85 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1.5 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −6.4 | 2.9 | 9.2 | 10 | 110 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −9.7 | 8.1 | 17.8 | 14 | 161 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2.3 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −12.5 | 4.1 | 16.6 | 10 | 187 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −15.2 | 5.7 | 20.9 | 10 | 160 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −16.9 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 6 | 142 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −24.0 | 7.1 | 31.0 | 7 | 189 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −26.4 | 7.0 | 33.4 | 12 | 173 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 1.7 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −33.6 | 1.2 | 34.8 | 4 | 167 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Sudan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 3.8% Possible · rank 2 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Major | ×1.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| Health system failure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 14 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severe | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 77 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 9 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 88 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 71 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | Global funding seizure Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 189 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.6 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.1 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×1.9 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 180 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.6 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Breakdown of state function | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 189 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.5 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.6 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.5 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 180 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×1.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |