Suriname
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 29.7
- rank 73 of 197 · 3 years: 29.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −19.0
- rank 177 of 197 · 3 years: −19.1
- Shock absorbed
- 18%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.25
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 7of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global funding seizure, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: industry as a share of gdp; consumer price inflation; youth unemployment rate; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Suriname’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.75 | −0.87 | −1.04 | −0.47 | ▼ 7 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.83 | −0.76 | −0.99 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.1 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.73 | −0.71 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.9 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.61 | −0.68 | −0.82 | −0.37 | 0 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.56 | −0.63 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.63 | −0.62 | −0.70 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.53 | −0.56 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.44 | −0.51 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 6 | 13 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.39 | −0.36 | −0.41 | −0.18 | ▼ 2 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.22 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.14 | ▲ 8 | 10 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.23 | −0.51 | −0.40 | −1.24 | −1.08 | −1.16 | −1.08 | −1.06 | −1.06 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.19 | −0.52 | −0.81 | −0.47 | −1.10 | −1.53 | −1.25 | −0.47 | −0.54 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.18 | −0.49 | · | −0.49 | −0.44 | −1.00 | −1.63 | −1.14 | −1.02 |
| AI labour shock | −0.23 | −0.38 | · | −1.00 | −0.88 | −1.03 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.23 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.36 | −0.84 | −0.81 | −0.84 | −0.82 | −1.13 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.23 | −0.51 | −0.82 | · | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.85 | −0.27 | −0.67 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.81 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.15 | −0.71 | −0.57 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.68 | −0.64 | −0.55 | −0.70 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.14 | −0.61 | −0.59 | · | −0.68 | −0.70 | · | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.08 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.30 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Suriname is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 14 | 123 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.3 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 28 | 121 | Energy Infrastructure 4.5 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −6.1 | 6.2 | 12.2 | 14 | 148 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −10.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 16 | 128 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −10.6 | 3.1 | 13.8 | 19 | 164 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.5 | 3.8 | 18.3 | 9 | 126 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −16.2 | 12.0 | 28.1 | 16 | 160 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −19.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 14 | 187 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −28.5 | 13.9 | 42.4 | 22 | 183 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −37.3 | 2.4 | 39.7 | 5 | 179 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Suriname, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 2.6% Possible · rank 95 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.3% Possible · rank 74 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 41 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 109 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Major | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 52 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Health system failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 74 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 63 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 79 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severe | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 119 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 144 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 162 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 91 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 171 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 170 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.2 |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×86 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 148 | No route found · closest 2.1 of 3 | ×3.9 | — |
| Food and water failure | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 188 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 152 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 169 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×21 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×21 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |