Europe · SWE

Sweden

Baseline index 15.30Rank 9 of 197AdvancedEuropeAtlas profileAll results
Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years
6.1
rank 186 of 197 · 3 years: 6.0
Worst case
−4.0%
Regional war spillover · tail −3.5%
Opportunity · 10 years
+35.7
rank 9 of 197 · 3 years: +36.0
Best case
+65
Outbreak defence succeeds · gainer in 8 of 10
Shock absorbed
59%
by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend
+0.01
expected index points from best practice
Breadth
1of 10
scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link
Information Environment & Strategic Communication
weakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; youth unemployment rate; few months of imports covered by reserves; refugees hosted per head of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Sweden’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

Regional war spillover (S03)
Severe pandemic (S10)
AI labour shock (S08)
Cryptographic trust break (S09)
Trade bloc rupture (S01)
Hybrid coercion (S04)
Global funding seizure (S02)
Legitimacy rupture (S05)
Breadbasket failure (S06)
Core disaster (S07)

−0.61

−0.54

−0.48

−0.48

−0.39

−0.37

−0.33

−0.25

−0.23

−0.18

ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Regional war spillover S03High 0.94−0.61−1.37−0.56▼ 216Resource Infrastructure 9.5 · Transitional
Severe pandemic S10High 0.89−0.54−1.38−0.53015Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 · Established
AI labour shock S08High 0.85−0.48−1.27−0.4708Artificial Intelligence 12.7 · Established
Cryptographic trust break S09High 0.90−0.48−1.14−0.46011Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.9 · Established
Trade bloc rupture S01High 0.63−0.39−0.93−0.38010Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.1 · Transitional
Hybrid coercion S04High 0.78−0.37−0.86−0.36013Maritime Power 11.7 · Transitional
Global funding seizure S02High 0.69−0.33−0.86−0.3308Economic Output & Productivity 14.7 · Established
Legitimacy rupture S05Medium 0.51−0.25−0.66−0.2408Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.4 · Established
Breadbasket failure S06Low 0.34−0.23−0.54−0.2207Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 12.1 · Established
Core disaster S07Medium 0.36−0.18−0.50−0.18▲ 15Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCT Critical TechnologySI Strategic InfrastructureNS National SecurityHC Human CapitalII Information & InfluenceGI Governance & IntegrityFS Financial StrengthPI Production & InnovationTI Trade & Investment
Regional war spillover−0.35−0.82−0.76−0.32−0.32−0.79−0.74−0.63−0.81
Severe pandemic−0.58−0.29−0.24−0.70−0.61−0.65−0.61−0.60−0.60
AI labour shock−0.53−0.24·−0.64−0.56−0.66−0.56−0.55−0.55
Cryptographic trust break−0.62−0.34−0.62·−0.76−0.71−0.66−0.28−0.32
Trade bloc rupture−0.51−0.19−0.17−0.19−0.45−0.44−0.45−0.44−0.61
Hybrid coercion−0.28−0.60−0.60·−0.67−0.69·−0.25−0.25
Global funding seizure−0.20−0.22·−0.22−0.20−0.45−0.73−0.51−0.46
Legitimacy rupture−0.14−0.16−0.29−0.14−0.33−0.47−0.38−0.14−0.16
Breadbasket failure−0.12−0.28−0.10−0.26−0.25−0.27−0.29−0.22−0.25
Core disaster−0.01−0.27−0.09−0.22−0.10−0.24−0.26−0.22−0.22
Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Sweden is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗Gainer+64.565.20.8765Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · Established
Clean power threshold S15 ↗Gainer+53.457.03.6666Resource Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
Automated discovery step S17 ↗Gainer+48.255.37.16314Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗Gainer+46.656.610.0816Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.6 · Advanced
Middle East settlement S14 ↗Gainer+37.540.22.7776Intelligence & Assessment 14.8 · Established
Market access opening S12 ↗Gainer+30.939.08.1785Transport Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced
Great-power détente S13 ↗Gainer+26.232.15.86311Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional
Public service leap S18 ↗Gainer+18.320.42.08212Financial Infrastructure 16 · Advanced
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗Mixed+4.29.25.07179Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 12.5 · Established
Debt service reset S11 ↗Mixed−0.73.23.881105Energy Infrastructure 15.5 · Advanced

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Sweden, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failureBasketLikelihoodMost likely routeHeadroomLever
Breakdown of state function16.9 Advanced → Established2.0% Possible · rank 131Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×3.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Broad fall in governance and integrity17.1 Advanced → Established0.9% Unlikely · rank 133Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×3.8Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Loss of financial stability16.8 Advanced → Established0.8% Unlikely · rank 162Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail×3.8Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.4
Strategic awareness failure14.8 Established → Transitional0.8% Unlikely · rank 53Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×3.2Quantum Technologies 11.8
Collapse in energy security13.0 Established → Transitional0.8% Unlikely · rank 50Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail×2.9Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Broad fall in financial strength16.3 Advanced → Established0.7% Unlikely · rank 141Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail×4.1Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 14.4
Breakdown of information trust15.5 Advanced → Established0.6% Unlikely · rank 79Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.0Quantum Technologies 11.8
Rupture in trade and supply15.6 Advanced → Established0.6% Unlikely · rank 119Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail×2.7Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Broad fall in information and influence14.8 Established → Transitional0.5% Unlikely · rank 67Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.0Quantum Technologies 11.8
Diplomatic isolation16.2 Advanced → Established0.4% Unlikely · rank 68Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.0Quantum Technologies 11.8
Broad fall in national security12.0 Transitional → Foundational0.4% Unlikely · rank 31Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×4.0Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Defence readiness failure14.3 Established → Transitional0.4% Unlikely · rank 31Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×3.8Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Health system failure17.3 Advanced → Established0.4% Unlikely · rank 122Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail×2.9Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Failure of digital lifelines16.2 Advanced → Established0.4% Unlikely · rank 43Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.0Quantum Technologies 11.8
Rule of law failure17.3 Advanced → Established0.4% Unlikely · rank 141Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail×4.0Quantum Technologies 11.8
Broad fall in trade and investment15.7 Advanced → Established0.4% Unlikely · rank 96Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail×3.7Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure14.9 Established → Transitional0.3% Unlikely · rank 68Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×3.7Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Broad fall in production and innovation16.6 Advanced → Established0.3% Unlikely · rank 80Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×4.8Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Loss of industrial capacity16.3 Advanced → Established0.3% Unlikely · rank 97Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×4.8Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Broad fall in critical technology13.5 Established → Transitional0.2% Remote · rank 27Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×4.8Quantum Technologies 11.8
Loss of advanced technology base11.7 Transitional → Foundational0.2% Remote · rank 25Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail×5.2Quantum Technologies 11.8
Broad fall in human capital16.9 Advanced → Established0.1% Remote · rank 70Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×4.3Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Education pipeline failure16.7 Advanced → Established0.1% Remote · rank 74Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail×4.6Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Food and water failure14.2 Established → Transitional0.1% Remote · rank 171Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail×4.8Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Loss of strategic deterrence6.4 Foundational → Nascentunder 0.1% Remote · rank 20Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail×4.8Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Routes to prosperityBasketLikelihoodMost likely routeHeadroomLever
Stronger health and biotechnology16.8 Advanced → Frontier20% Likely · rank 9Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major×0.9Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier
Reliable low-cost energy14.1 Established → Advanced19% Likely · rank 6Clean power threshold Severe×0.9Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Frontier AI and compute11.8 Transitional → Established18% Likely · rank 10Automated discovery step Severe×0.9Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
Broad rise in governance and integrity17.1 Advanced → Frontier16% Likely · rank 7Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.1Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier
Trusted public institutions17.2 Advanced → Frontier15% Likely · rank 7Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in critical technology13.5 Established → Advanced14% Likely · rank 10Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.2Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Capable digital government16.9 Advanced → Frontier13% Likely · rank 11Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.1Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure14.9 Established → Advanced11% Likely · rank 5Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Research translated into value17.3 Advanced → Frontier10% Likely · rank 12Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe×1.1Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · reaches Frontier
Broad rise in production and innovation16.6 Advanced → Frontier10% Likely · rank 8Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe×1.4Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · reaches Frontier
Higher-value manufacturing15.4 Advanced → Advanced8.4% Likely · rank 8Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe×1.2Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
Broad rise in trade and investment15.7 Advanced → Advanced8.2% Likely · rank 10Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Broad rise in human capital16.9 Advanced → Frontier7.6% Likely · rank 10Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.4Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier
Higher-value international business16.1 Advanced → Advanced6.6% Likely · rank 10Market access opening Extreme×1.5Transport Infrastructure 15.3
Broad rise in financial strength16.3 Advanced → Advanced5.9% Likely · rank 3Clean power threshold Extreme×1.5Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Sophisticated export strength15.8 Advanced → Advanced5.5% Likely · rank 14Great-power détente Severe + Clean power threshold Severe×1.5Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
Adaptable skilled workforce16.7 Advanced → Frontier4.0% Possible · rank 11Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · reaches Frontier
Secure food and water supply14.2 Established → Advanced4.0% Possible · rank 11Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.5Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Deeper long-term finance15.9 Advanced → Advanced3.8% Possible · rank 7Clean power threshold Extreme×1.4Resource Infrastructure 10.8
Stronger information environment13.4 Established → Established3.8% Possible · rank 7Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.1Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Assured space services11.8 Transitional → Established2.4% Possible · rank 11Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.8Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Wider international influence16.2 Advanced → Advanced2.2% Possible · rank 9Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme×1.5Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Broad rise in information and influence14.8 Established → Advanced1.8% Possible · rank 7Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe×1.3Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14
Broad rise in national security12.0 Transitional → Established0.8% Unlikely · rank 11Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.8Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8
More deployable joint force14.2 Established → Advanced0.8% Unlikely · rank 12Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major×1.8Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8