Switzerland
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 6.7
- rank 181 of 197 · 3 years: 6.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +34.5
- rank 10 of 197 · 3 years: +34.6
- Shock absorbed
- 56%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.06
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 1of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Information Environment & Strategic Communication
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; refugees hosted per head of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Switzerland’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.97 | −0.83 | −1.38 | −0.58 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.86 | −0.53 | −1.33 | −0.51 | 0 | 12 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.6 · Transitional |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.92 | −0.51 | −1.16 | −0.47 | 0 | 11 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 10.1 · Transitional |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.88 | −0.50 | −1.31 | −0.50 | 0 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.7 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.76 | −0.43 | −0.82 | −0.35 | 0 | 12 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.73 | −0.41 | −1.08 | −0.41 | 0 | 5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.3 · Transitional |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.50 | −0.23 | −0.63 | −0.23 | 0 | 4 | Economic Output & Productivity 15 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.45 | −0.23 | −0.63 | −0.23 | 0 | 2 | Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.35 | −0.19 | −0.45 | −0.18 | 0 | 2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.2 · Established |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.27 | −0.17 | −0.42 | −0.16 | 0 | 2 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.48 | −1.13 | −0.90 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.09 | −1.02 | −0.87 | −1.12 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.57 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.69 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.66 | −0.36 | −0.63 | · | −0.80 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| AI labour shock | −0.56 | −0.25 | · | −0.68 | −0.59 | −0.70 | −0.59 | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.33 | −0.71 | −0.62 | · | −0.79 | −0.81 | · | −0.30 | −0.30 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.54 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.49 | −0.47 | −0.49 | −0.48 | −0.65 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.14 | −0.15 | · | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.30 | −0.50 | −0.35 | −0.31 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.29 | −0.29 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.13 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.19 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Switzerland is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +59.2 | 60.0 | 0.8 | 72 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +52.3 | 59.9 | 7.6 | 68 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +48.0 | 48.2 | 0.1 | 53 | 12 | Resource Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +41.5 | 53.8 | 12.2 | 81 | 12 | Communications & Digital Infrastructure 15.9 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +32.0 | 32.4 | 0.4 | 61 | 14 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +31.2 | 37.4 | 6.2 | 62 | 9 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 · Transitional |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +29.7 | 37.4 | 7.7 | 76 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 14 · Established |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +12.5 | 15.2 | 2.7 | 75 | 24 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.2 · Established |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 68 | 67 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.8 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 75 | 136 | Energy Infrastructure 14 · Established |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Switzerland, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 2.5% Possible · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 23 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 16.1 Advanced → Established | 1.2% Possible · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 42 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 15.8 Advanced → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 98 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 72 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 17.2 Advanced → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 167 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 55 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.3 |
| Health system failure | 16.8 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 87 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 55 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 15.8 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 32 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 15.2 Advanced → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 115 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 158 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 88 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 36 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 15.8 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 82 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 16.5 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 10 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.8 | Advanced Manufacturing 15.6 |
| Food and water failure | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 116 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.4 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 17 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 49 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 37 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 13 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 94 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 17.0 Advanced → Frontier | 20% Likely · rank 10 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Frontier AI and compute | 13.1 Established → Established | 18% Likely · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 16.1 Advanced → Advanced | 13% Likely · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Capable digital government | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 13% Likely · rank 12 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Trusted public institutions | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 13% Likely · rank 13 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 13.4 Established → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 11 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 16.4 Advanced → Advanced | 10% Likely · rank 9 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 12.5 Established → Established | 9.8% Likely · rank 13 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.0 | Resource Infrastructure 6.5 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 13.8 Established → Advanced | 9.2% Likely · rank 9 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Research translated into value | 17.9 Advanced → Frontier | 8.1% Likely · rank 15 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 15.8 Advanced → Advanced | 7.7% Likely · rank 12 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 7.4% Likely · rank 11 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.3 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in human capital | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 5.9% Likely · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 5.3% Likely · rank 14 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value international business | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 5.2% Likely · rank 12 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 3.7% Possible · rank 13 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.6 | Communications & Digital Infrastructure 15.9 · reaches Frontier |
| Secure food and water supply | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 13 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 2.3% Possible · rank 19 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Assured space services | 8.8 Foundational → Transitional | 2.3% Possible · rank 12 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 |
| Wider international influence | 14.3 Established → Advanced | 1.8% Possible · rank 11 | Great-power détente Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.6 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 |
| Stronger information environment | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 1.6% Possible · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 16.8 Advanced → Frontier | 1.3% Possible · rank 16 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 6.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 13.9 Established → Advanced | 1.1% Possible · rank 14 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 |
| Broad rise in national security | 8.3 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 14 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 |
| More deployable joint force | 8.9 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 13 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 |