Syria
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 61.2
- rank 14 of 197 · 3 years: 60.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −9.4
- rank 120 of 197 · 3 years: −9.2
- Shock absorbed
- 8%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Monetary & Currency Capability
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure, Regional war spillover. Highest exposure indicators: consumer price inflation; youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; public debt relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Syria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.80 | −1.07 | −1.17 | −0.54 | ▼ 5 | 19 | Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.94 | −0.98 | −1.03 | −0.52 | ▼ 5 | 16 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.63 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.34 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.58 | −0.63 | −0.66 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.48 | −0.61 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 4 | 13 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.46 | −0.61 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.43 | −0.58 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.37 | −0.47 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Financial System Depth & Access 0.6 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.43 | −0.40 | −0.46 | −0.20 | 0 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.24 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 3 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.40 | −1.40 | −0.49 | −1.32 | −1.25 | −1.34 | −1.14 | −1.06 | −1.21 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.43 | −0.72 | −1.28 | −0.66 | −1.48 | −1.69 | −1.21 | −0.66 | −0.71 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.53 | −0.53 | −0.98 | · | −1.19 | −1.11 | −0.86 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.28 | −0.45 | · | −0.46 | −0.41 | −0.93 | −1.24 | −1.06 | −0.85 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.26 | −0.84 | −0.77 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.81 | −0.74 | −0.64 | −0.79 |
| AI labour shock | −0.42 | −0.33 | · | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.90 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.40 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.78 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.70 | −0.23 | −0.56 | −0.25 | −0.63 | −0.67 | −0.57 | −0.57 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.22 | −0.67 | −0.67 | · | −0.74 | −0.76 | · | −0.28 | −0.28 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.37 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.52 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Syria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +4.4 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 13 | 98 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +1.9 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 9 | 93 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −4.4 | 2.5 | 6.9 | 9 | 145 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −5.1 | 3.5 | 8.6 | 8 | 158 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −9.2 | 4.6 | 13.8 | 9 | 189 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −11.2 | 3.9 | 15.0 | 8 | 123 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −12.9 | 6.0 | 18.9 | 8 | 145 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −13.0 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 5 | 109 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −20.0 | 1.3 | 21.3 | 3 | 96 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −22.7 | 4.7 | 27.3 | 7 | 186 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Syria, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 14 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| Health system failure | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 72 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Major | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 16 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 117 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 88 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Education pipeline failure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 66 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 167 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.6 |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 83 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Breakdown of state function | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.5 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 189 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×21 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 185 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |