Taiwan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 8.5
- rank 173 of 197 · 3 years: 8.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +38.7
- rank 5 of 197 · 3 years: +39.1
- Shock absorbed
- 54%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.06
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; little renewable water per head; internet users as a share of population; share of exports going to china and the united states; share of population aged 65 and over; urban share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Taiwan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.96 | −0.75 | −1.41 | −0.62 | ▼ 1 | 26 | Resource Infrastructure 8.5 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.95 | −0.63 | −1.41 | −0.59 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 11.1 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.88 | −0.62 | −1.32 | −0.54 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.8 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.86 | −0.60 | −1.35 | −0.57 | 0 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12.1 · Established |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.95 | −0.58 | −1.23 | −0.53 | 0 | 18 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.7 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.86 | −0.50 | −1.21 | −0.50 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 12.4 · Established |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.75 | −0.43 | −0.84 | −0.37 | 0 | 10 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 7.4 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.45 | −0.31 | −0.70 | −0.30 | 0 | 10 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.4 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.51 | −0.28 | −0.64 | −0.28 | 0 | 14 | Labour & Employment 12.8 · Established |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.46 | −0.27 | −0.61 | −0.26 | 0 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.42 | −0.99 | −0.99 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.95 | −0.89 | −0.76 | −0.98 |
| AI labour shock | −0.70 | −0.32 | · | −0.84 | −0.74 | −0.87 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.81 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.73 | −0.70 | −0.73 | −0.71 | −0.98 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.63 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.76 | −0.67 | −0.72 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.66 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.74 | −0.40 | −0.81 | · | −0.90 | −0.84 | −0.79 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.75 | −0.27 | −0.59 | −0.27 | −0.67 | −0.71 | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.31 | −0.69 | −0.74 | · | −0.76 | −0.79 | · | −0.29 | −0.29 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.35 | −0.37 | −0.40 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.17 | −0.19 | · | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.38 | −0.63 | −0.44 | −0.39 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Taiwan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +57.6 | 59.2 | 1.6 | 71 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +57.5 | 58.1 | 0.6 | 60 | 5 | Resource Infrastructure 10 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +50.8 | 59.0 | 8.2 | 68 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 · Established |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +39.3 | 57.6 | 18.3 | 72 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +30.1 | 40.2 | 10.1 | 71 | 6 | Trade Policy & Market Access 13.5 · Established |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +27.1 | 32.0 | 4.9 | 71 | 6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 · Established |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +24.6 | 44.8 | 20.2 | 53 | 14 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +24.5 | 25.2 | 0.6 | 50 | 28 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +23.4 | 29.7 | 6.3 | 74 | 2 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14.3 · Established |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.3 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 72 | 55 | Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Taiwan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 15.6 Advanced → Established | 3.9% Possible · rank 45 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 15.2 Advanced → Transitional | 2.0% Possible · rank 41 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Loss of financial stability | 15.3 Advanced → Transitional | 1.3% Possible · rank 130 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 1.2% Possible · rank 82 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 15.2 Advanced → Established | 1.2% Possible · rank 18 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 1.2% Possible · rank 34 | AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 13.6 Established → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 43 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 9.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 15.7 Advanced → Established | 1.0% Possible · rank 84 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 29 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 42 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 14.5 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 22 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Health system failure | 15.7 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 77 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Broad fall in national security | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 14 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 14.6 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 94 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 9.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 15.4 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 34 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 15 |
| Defence readiness failure | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 22 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 15.3 Advanced → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 34 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 9.5 |
| Food and water failure | 14.7 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 61 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 15 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 15.4 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 4 | AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 4 | Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 15.5 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 36 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 10 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 15.7 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 26 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 8.5 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 21% Likely · rank 6 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 19% Likely · rank 9 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 19% Likely · rank 7 | Clean power threshold Severe | ×0.9 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Trusted public institutions | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 18% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Capable digital government | 16.0 Advanced → Advanced | 18% Likely · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 15% Likely · rank 8 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 12.8 Established → Established | 14% Likely · rank 9 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.1 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 5 | Market access opening Major + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 2 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 11% Likely · rank 2 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Research translated into value | 16.1 Advanced → Frontier | 11% Likely · rank 11 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value international business | 14.7 Established → Advanced | 8.7% Likely · rank 7 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Major | ×1.5 | Trade Policy & Market Access 13.5 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 8.7% Likely · rank 8 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.1 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 15.5 Advanced → Advanced | 8.6% Likely · rank 9 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 8.2% Likely · rank 10 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.1 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| Secure food and water supply | 14.7 Established → Advanced | 6.7% Likely · rank 8 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 5.9% Likely · rank 5 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 14.4 Established → Advanced | 4.7% Possible · rank 9 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 3.8% Possible · rank 6 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Assured space services | 10.7 Transitional → Established | 2.7% Possible · rank 9 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| Wider international influence | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | 2.2% Possible · rank 8 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 |
| Stronger information environment | 13.3 Established → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |
| Broad rise in national security | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 1.6% Possible · rank 10 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.7 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| More deployable joint force | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 1.6% Possible · rank 10 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.7 | Artificial Intelligence 12.3 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 11.0 Transitional → Established | 1.5% Possible · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.2 |