Tajikistan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 37.3
- rank 43 of 197 · 3 years: 36.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −18.2
- rank 173 of 197 · 3 years: −17.9
- Shock absorbed
- 17%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.32
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 4of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; share of population aged under 15; industry as a share of gdp; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Tajikistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.86 | −0.98 | −1.18 | −0.53 | ▼ 6 | 23 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.90 | −0.94 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 9 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.69 | −0.71 | −0.80 | −0.36 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.58 | −0.67 | −0.80 | −0.36 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.52 | −0.65 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2.7 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.48 | −0.59 | −0.71 | −0.32 | ▲ 4 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.49 | −0.58 | −0.69 | −0.31 | ▲ 4 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.51 | −0.55 | −0.71 | −0.31 | ▲ 3 | 13 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.61 | −0.53 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▼ 6 | 14 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.43 | −0.43 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 7 | 10 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.41 | −1.37 | −1.04 | −0.53 | −0.53 | −1.32 | −1.23 | −1.06 | −1.36 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.39 | −0.62 | −1.01 | −0.57 | −1.32 | −1.84 | −1.51 | −0.57 | −0.65 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.55 | −0.55 | −0.91 | · | −1.22 | −1.14 | −1.07 | −0.46 | −0.52 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.54 | −0.37 | −0.29 | −0.37 | −0.85 | −0.82 | −0.85 | −0.83 | −1.15 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.27 | −0.82 | −0.25 | −0.77 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.84 | −0.63 | −0.72 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.47 | −0.33 | −0.24 | −0.80 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| AI labour shock | −0.46 | −0.31 | · | −0.82 | −0.72 | −0.84 | −0.72 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.83 | −0.24 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.31 | −0.90 | −0.75 | · | −1.00 | −1.03 | · | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.21 | −0.29 | · | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.59 | −0.96 | −0.67 | −0.60 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Tajikistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +5.1 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 14 | 106 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 23 | 111 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −3.5 | 10.4 | 13.9 | 25 | 145 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.3 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −8.4 | 8.6 | 17.1 | 16 | 120 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −18.5 | 5.5 | 24.0 | 15 | 196 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −22.5 | 8.7 | 31.2 | 13 | 184 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −23.0 | 7.8 | 30.8 | 15 | 193 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −26.7 | 8.0 | 34.7 | 20 | 175 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −30.4 | 2.5 | 33.0 | 10 | 182 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −41.1 | 2.2 | 43.3 | 5 | 188 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Tajikistan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.8% Possible · rank 51 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.5 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 2.4% Possible · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 2.3% Possible · rank 25 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.6 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 85 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 33 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.6 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 62 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 27 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 73 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 119 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.6 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 58 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Health system failure | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 131 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Food and water failure | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 83 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 110 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 86 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 145 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 161 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 92 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 162 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 113 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 172 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×11 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.6 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |