Tanzania
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 17.7
- rank 120 of 197 · 3 years: 17.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −4.3
- rank 85 of 197 · 3 years: −4.2
- Shock absorbed
- 25%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.20
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Tanzania’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.64 | −0.73 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 5 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 4.7 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.70 | −0.65 | −0.90 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.8 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.62 | −0.63 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.52 | −0.57 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.5 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.46 | −0.53 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 4 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.48 | −0.66 | −0.29 | 0 | 11 | Labour & Employment 4.8 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.41 | −0.44 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.38 | −0.43 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 6 | 12 | Artificial Intelligence 2.1 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.33 | −0.37 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 4 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.25 | −0.22 | −0.28 | −0.12 | ▲ 3 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.37 | −0.90 | −0.31 | −0.85 | −0.81 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.70 | −0.80 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.37 | −0.42 | −0.76 | −0.38 | −0.89 | −1.24 | −1.02 | −0.38 | −0.44 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.94 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.34 | −0.84 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.32 | −0.76 | −0.70 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.58 | −0.75 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.54 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.69 | −0.60 | −0.65 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.29 | −0.32 | · | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.65 | −1.06 | −0.74 | −0.66 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.55 | −0.31 | −0.57 | · | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.61 | −0.26 | −0.30 |
| AI labour shock | −0.46 | −0.22 | · | −0.59 | −0.51 | −0.60 | −0.51 | −0.50 | −0.50 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.45 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.44 | −0.42 | −0.44 | −0.43 | −0.59 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.16 | −0.35 | −0.35 | · | −0.39 | −0.40 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Tanzania is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +15.2 | 18.4 | 3.3 | 26 | 26 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +10.7 | 17.1 | 6.4 | 34 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +0.8 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 30 | 118 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.8 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −0.1 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 26 | 80 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −1.3 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 25 | 148 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −1.7 | 14.6 | 16.3 | 21 | 137 | Energy Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −2.7 | 19.8 | 22.5 | 22 | 88 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −7.8 | 3.7 | 11.5 | 17 | 81 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −11.7 | 21.0 | 32.7 | 34 | 127 | Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −27.4 | 3.6 | 31.1 | 11 | 145 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Tanzania, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 134 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Breakdown of state function | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 175 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Food and water failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 39 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 139 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Health system failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 105 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 177 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 170 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 150 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 160 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 100 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 103 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 125 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 77 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 130 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 162 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 156 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.6 Foundational → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 165 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 170 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 165 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 103 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 103 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×4.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 103 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.2 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 7.2 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 85 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.3 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 82 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |