Thailand
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 11.4
- rank 155 of 197 · 3 years: 11.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +12.1
- rank 37 of 197 · 3 years: +12.4
- Shock absorbed
- 42%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.13
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Regional war spillover. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Thailand’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.86 | −0.75 | −1.10 | −0.48 | ▼ 1 | 24 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.81 | −0.71 | −1.20 | −0.53 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Artificial Intelligence 5.9 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.78 | −0.68 | −1.20 | −0.53 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.7 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.80 | −0.67 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.6 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.80 | −0.66 | −1.17 | −0.51 | ▲ 1 | 23 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 5.3 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.71 | −0.48 | −0.79 | −0.34 | 0 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.57 | −0.38 | −0.71 | −0.31 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Labour & Employment 9.6 · Transitional |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.48 | −0.36 | −0.67 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 9.9 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.40 | −0.32 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.2 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.29 | −0.24 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.97 | −0.53 | −0.97 | · | −1.18 | −1.10 | −1.03 | −0.44 | −0.50 |
| AI labour shock | −0.79 | −0.36 | · | −0.96 | −0.84 | −0.99 | −0.84 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.73 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.83 | −0.77 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.88 | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.79 | −0.76 | −0.79 | −0.78 | −1.07 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.37 | −0.89 | −0.82 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.68 | −0.88 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.36 | −0.78 | −0.78 | · | −0.86 | −0.89 | · | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.23 | −0.25 | · | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.51 | −0.83 | −0.58 | −0.52 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.53 | −0.17 | −0.42 | −0.19 | −0.48 | −0.51 | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.38 | −0.19 | −0.44 | −0.61 | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.22 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.27 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Thailand is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +36.3 | 38.2 | 1.9 | 51 | 35 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +32.2 | 33.1 | 0.9 | 45 | 28 | Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +26.1 | 27.1 | 1.0 | 53 | 24 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.8 · Transitional |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +14.9 | 36.3 | 21.4 | 57 | 25 | Energy Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +8.3 | 20.7 | 12.4 | 43 | 39 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +6.5 | 26.3 | 19.7 | 35 | 38 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.5 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 55 | 37 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +4.3 | 28.8 | 24.5 | 42 | 38 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +3.2 | 29.9 | 26.8 | 52 | 60 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −0.1 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 52 | 104 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Thailand, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic awareness failure | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 25 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Breakdown of state function | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.5% Possible · rank 158 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.4% Possible · rank 88 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 13.2 Established → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 121 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 1.2% Possible · rank 63 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 10 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 18 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Possible · rank 105 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 47 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 23 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Possible · rank 29 | Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 10.7 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 57 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 10 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 29 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 23 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 136 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 4 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 33 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8.7 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 5 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 10.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 75 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.4 | Maritime Power 10 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 77 | Trade bloc rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Artificial Intelligence 7.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 98 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Health system failure | 12.8 Established → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 186 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 84 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Food and water failure | 12.6 Established → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 179 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Maritime Power 10 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.2 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 118 | Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Artificial Intelligence 7.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 29 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Maritime Power 10 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | 3.4% Possible · rank 28 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.6 Transitional → Established | 2.3% Possible · rank 43 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 12.8 Established → Established | 2.1% Possible · rank 27 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.8 | Energy Infrastructure 10.6 |
| Capable digital government | 11.7 Transitional → Established | 2.0% Possible · rank 40 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 13.2 Established → Established | 2.0% Possible · rank 24 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.5 Transitional → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 41 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.1 Transitional → Transitional | 1.5% Possible · rank 39 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 6.2 Foundational → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 35 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 |
| Higher-value international business | 12.4 Established → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 29 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Major | ×1.6 | Energy Infrastructure 10.6 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 12.2 Established → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 33 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.3 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Research translated into value | 10.5 Transitional → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 34 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 6.2 Foundational → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 43 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 31 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.7 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 40 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 34 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Wider international influence | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 29 | Great-power détente Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.8 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.6 Established → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 43 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.5 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.2 | Energy Infrastructure 10.6 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 34 | Great-power détente Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Stronger information environment | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 40 | Great-power détente Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 12.7 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 38 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 12.8 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in national security | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 41 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 42 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 10.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 40 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |