Togo
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 33.1
- rank 59 of 197 · 3 years: 33.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −8.1
- rank 110 of 197 · 3 years: −8.1
- Shock absorbed
- 18%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.29
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 1of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; public debt relative to gdp; remittances relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Togo’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.92 | −1.13 | −1.41 | −0.62 | ▼ 15 | 28 | Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.68 | −0.80 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.71 | −0.72 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▼ 3 | 15 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.3 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.71 | −0.68 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.3 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.51 | −0.62 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.50 | −0.59 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 0.1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.50 | −0.53 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.46 | −0.51 | −0.65 | −0.28 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.27 | −0.31 | −0.37 | −0.16 | ▲ 4 | 10 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.28 | −0.25 | −0.30 | −0.13 | 0 | 6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.32 | −1.44 | −0.50 | −1.35 | −1.29 | −1.38 | −1.47 | −1.11 | −1.26 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.28 | −1.11 | −0.92 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −1.07 | −0.99 | −0.85 | −1.10 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.24 | −0.47 | −0.84 | −0.43 | −1.00 | −1.40 | −1.15 | −0.43 | −0.49 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.46 | · | −0.47 | −0.42 | −0.95 | −1.54 | −1.08 | −0.96 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.37 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.84 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| AI labour shock | −0.39 | −0.31 | · | −0.83 | −0.73 | −0.86 | −0.73 | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.74 | · | −0.89 | −0.84 | −0.78 | −0.33 | −0.38 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.76 | −0.25 | −0.61 | −0.27 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.62 | −0.62 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.52 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.12 | −0.42 | −0.42 | · | −0.47 | −0.48 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Togo is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +10.2 | 17.7 | 7.4 | 23 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.2 | 12.9 | 3.7 | 14 | 44 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −1.6 | 11.9 | 13.5 | 21 | 131 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.3 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −4.7 | 10.3 | 15.0 | 13 | 146 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −7.0 | 7.0 | 13.9 | 15 | 170 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −9.4 | 2.3 | 11.6 | 12 | 92 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −10.3 | 5.1 | 15.4 | 15 | 127 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.8 | 14.2 | 25.9 | 15 | 152 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −12.7 | 13.9 | 26.6 | 23 | 129 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −25.9 | 1.9 | 27.8 | 6 | 138 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Togo, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.2% Possible · rank 31 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Food and water failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 9 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Breakdown of state function | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 2.9% Possible · rank 82 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 29 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 86 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Health system failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 25 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 75 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 93 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 87 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 93 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 73 | Global funding seizure Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 79 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 26 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severe | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 11 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severe | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 87 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 89 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 90 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×41 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 146 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 150 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.9 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 141 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 139 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |