Tonga
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 48.6
- rank 22 of 197 · 3 years: 48.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −14.6
- rank 160 of 197 · 3 years: −14.2
- Shock absorbed
- 14%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.34
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Tonga’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.94 | −1.03 | −1.17 | −0.55 | ▼ 8 | 21 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.75 | −0.81 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 5 | 21 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.7 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.68 | −0.78 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 4 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.60 | −0.71 | −0.83 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.73 | −0.69 | −0.75 | −0.35 | ▼ 4 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.60 | −0.68 | −0.77 | −0.35 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.50 | −0.63 | −0.75 | −0.33 | ▲ 2 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.60 | −0.53 | −0.59 | −0.27 | ▼ 5 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.52 | −0.49 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 5 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.8 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.46 | −0.45 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Economic Output & Productivity 0.9 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.15 | −1.39 | −0.85 | −0.61 | −0.61 | −1.53 | −1.43 | −1.19 | −1.55 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.21 | −0.31 | −0.98 | −0.44 | −1.10 | −1.17 | −1.00 | −1.00 |
| AI labour shock | −0.15 | −0.44 | · | −1.17 | −1.02 | −1.21 | −1.02 | −1.00 | −1.00 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.15 | −0.42 | −0.27 | −1.02 | −0.89 | −0.96 | −0.89 | −0.88 | −0.88 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.15 | −0.59 | −0.69 | · | −1.32 | −1.24 | −1.16 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.15 | −0.40 | −0.28 | −0.40 | −0.93 | −0.89 | −0.93 | −0.91 | −1.25 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.12 | −0.83 | −0.22 | −0.78 | −0.74 | −0.79 | −0.85 | −0.64 | −0.73 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.95 | −0.71 | · | −1.07 | −1.10 | · | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.11 | −0.33 | −0.48 | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.98 | −0.81 | −0.30 | −0.35 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.11 | −0.31 | · | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.64 | −1.04 | −0.73 | −0.65 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Tonga is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 11 | 122 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −4.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 21 | 154 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −5.3 | 7.3 | 12.6 | 15 | 149 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −7.9 | 9.0 | 16.9 | 13 | 117 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −9.5 | 10.6 | 20.0 | 15 | 111 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −10.1 | 6.6 | 16.6 | 10 | 147 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −12.3 | 7.4 | 19.7 | 9 | 157 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −23.3 | 2.2 | 25.5 | 3 | 123 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −23.8 | 9.8 | 33.6 | 12 | 184 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −31.1 | 4.2 | 35.3 | 7 | 187 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Tonga, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 4.0% Possible · rank 42 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 2.2% Possible · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Major | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Major | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 49 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Health system failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 33 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 106 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Resource Infrastructure 1 |
| Food and water failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 36 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 133 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 129 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 104 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 150 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 167 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×20 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 167 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 166 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 171 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |