Trinidad & Tobago
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 15.5
- rank 131 of 197 · 3 years: 15.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −18.5
- rank 176 of 197 · 3 years: −18.7
- Shock absorbed
- 29%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.18
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Trinidad & Tobago’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.69 | −0.76 | −1.05 | −0.47 | 0 | 26 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.70 | −0.98 | −0.44 | 0 | 22 | Artificial Intelligence 1.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.69 | −0.69 | −0.85 | −0.38 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.59 | −0.61 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 1 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.60 | −0.52 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 5 | 20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.1 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.56 | −0.49 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▲ 4 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.44 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Economic Output & Productivity 5.9 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.33 | −0.36 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.39 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.31 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.20 | ▲ 6 | 15 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.71 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −1.00 | −0.87 | −0.94 | −0.87 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| AI labour shock | −0.69 | −0.36 | · | −0.96 | −0.84 | −0.99 | −0.84 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.77 | −0.50 | −0.90 | · | −1.11 | −1.04 | −0.97 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.68 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −0.71 | −0.74 | −0.73 | −1.00 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.29 | −0.33 | −0.60 | −0.30 | −0.70 | −0.97 | −0.80 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.74 | −0.24 | −0.59 | −0.26 | −0.66 | −0.70 | −0.60 | −0.60 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.29 | · | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.60 | −0.98 | −0.68 | −0.61 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.19 | −0.45 | −0.15 | −0.42 | −0.40 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.55 | · | −0.61 | −0.63 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.18 | −0.43 | −0.39 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.41 | −0.38 | −0.33 | −0.42 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Trinidad & Tobago is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +10.5 | 15.8 | 5.4 | 25 | 89 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 40 | 114 | Energy Infrastructure 6.3 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −1.8 | 13.3 | 15.1 | 26 | 84 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −9.2 | 9.0 | 18.2 | 25 | 143 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −12.2 | 17.6 | 29.8 | 27 | 139 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −12.3 | 8.3 | 20.6 | 17 | 106 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −14.5 | 18.4 | 32.9 | 36 | 137 | Energy Infrastructure 6.3 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.9 | 6.2 | 29.1 | 12 | 117 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −32.0 | 4.8 | 36.8 | 31 | 179 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.7 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −44.6 | 9.1 | 53.8 | 26 | 174 | Energy Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Trinidad & Tobago, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 172 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 155 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 172 | Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 107 | Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 168 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 152 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Health system failure | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 170 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 136 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 116 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 119 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 170 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Food and water failure | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 174 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 9.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 144 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 152 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 156 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 136 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 99 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 89 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 166 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 99 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 89 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.1 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×4.9 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×2.7 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 126 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 89 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 89 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Capable digital government | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 97 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 95 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |