Türkiye
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 8.0
- rank 174 of 197 · 3 years: 7.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +21.3
- rank 24 of 197 · 3 years: +21.7
- Shock absorbed
- 45%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.08
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Monetary & Currency Capability
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; consumer price inflation; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Türkiye’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.85 | −0.65 | −1.08 | −0.48 | 0 | 20 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.7 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.77 | −0.62 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7.2 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.83 | −0.61 | −1.22 | −0.53 | 0 | 20 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 10.1 · Transitional |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.56 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 18 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7.9 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.71 | −0.52 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 10.9 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.58 | −0.48 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.5 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.49 | −0.41 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Monetary & Currency Capability 9.9 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.56 | −0.31 | −0.63 | −0.27 | 0 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.4 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.38 | −0.30 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.4 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.39 | −0.28 | −0.49 | −0.21 | 0 | 13 | Monetary & Currency Capability 10 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.83 | −0.45 | −0.90 | · | −1.01 | −0.95 | −0.88 | −0.38 | −0.43 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.78 | −0.36 | −0.83 | −1.16 | −0.95 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.34 | −0.80 | −0.80 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.72 | −0.62 | −0.79 |
| AI labour shock | −0.62 | −0.28 | · | −0.75 | −0.66 | −0.78 | −0.66 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.77 | −0.28 | −0.61 | −0.28 | −0.69 | −0.74 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.51 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.62 | −0.54 | −0.58 | −0.54 | −0.53 | −0.53 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.21 | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.47 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.52 | −0.39 | −0.44 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.23 | −0.49 | −0.54 | · | −0.55 | −0.57 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.47 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.17 | −0.19 | · | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.38 | −0.62 | −0.43 | −0.39 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Türkiye is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +51.0 | 55.5 | 4.5 | 57 | 1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +34.1 | 41.4 | 7.3 | 56 | 23 | Energy Technologies 10 · Transitional |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +30.5 | 33.8 | 3.3 | 58 | 45 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +29.9 | 48.4 | 18.5 | 57 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +21.1 | 23.0 | 1.8 | 58 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +11.6 | 25.6 | 14.0 | 42 | 32 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +11.4 | 24.5 | 13.1 | 61 | 33 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 11.3 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +8.1 | 14.7 | 6.5 | 47 | 28 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +3.8 | 18.5 | 14.8 | 48 | 62 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.6 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 49 | 103 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Türkiye, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 142 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 150 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 138 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 113 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 151 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 94 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 65 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 133 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 15.3 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 |
| Food and water failure | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 73 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 71 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 44 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×3.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 14.5 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 83 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Health system failure | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 155 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 13.6 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 97 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 15.2 Advanced → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 103 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 70 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 148 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 21 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 12 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 12.2 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 130 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Artificial Intelligence 9.7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 12.2 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 149 | Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | Artificial Intelligence 9.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 13.1 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 155 | Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Artificial Intelligence 9.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.6 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 128 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 6.3 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 7.4% Likely · rank 14 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Severe | ×1.2 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 7.4% Likely · rank 25 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Capable digital government | 12.9 Established → Established | 4.7% Possible · rank 30 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.6 Transitional → Established | 4.0% Possible · rank 27 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | 3.9% Possible · rank 28 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 1.8% Possible · rank 26 | Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Severe | ×1.4 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 7.8 Foundational → Transitional | 1.8% Possible · rank 30 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Wider international influence | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 1.5% Possible · rank 13 | Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Severe | ×1.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 9.6 Transitional → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 30 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Secure food and water supply | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 1.1% Possible · rank 24 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.8 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 |
| Research translated into value | 12.0 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 29 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 10 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 12.2 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 34 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 20 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.4 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 12.2 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 29 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.9 | Energy Technologies 10 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.1 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 25 | Public service leap Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 12.0 Established → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 31 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 13.1 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 42 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 10 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.7 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 27 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.9 | Energy Technologies 10 |
| Stronger information environment | 13.8 Established → Advanced | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 31 | Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.8 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 |
| Higher-value international business | 12.6 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 39 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 10 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 34 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.4 |
| Broad rise in national security | 12.7 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 20 | Great-power détente Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.6 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 |
| More deployable joint force | 14.9 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 20 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.8 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.3 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 13.4 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 10 |
| Assured space services | 11.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 35 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |