Turkmenistan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 36.5
- rank 46 of 197 · 3 years: 36.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −39.2
- rank 197 of 197 · 3 years: −39.1
- Shock absorbed
- 15%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.28
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Trade bloc rupture, Breadbasket failure, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; share of exports going to china and the united states; no coastline; industry as a share of gdp; consumer price inflation; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Turkmenistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.74 | −0.84 | −0.92 | −0.41 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.70 | −0.79 | −0.94 | −0.42 | ▼ 4 | 19 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.66 | −0.74 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 3 | 22 | Financial System Depth & Access 2.2 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.57 | −0.70 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▲ 3 | 19 | Monetary & Currency Capability 2.3 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.56 | −0.69 | −0.81 | −0.36 | 0 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.60 | −0.63 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.44 | −0.54 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.57 | −0.53 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.36 | −0.42 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 13 | 13 | Maritime Power 1.4 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Low 0.28 | −0.30 | −0.35 | −0.15 | ▲ 12 | 11 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.30 | −0.56 | −1.01 | −0.50 | −1.18 | −1.55 | −1.35 | −0.50 | −0.58 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.43 | −0.44 | −0.40 | −0.44 | −1.03 | −0.99 | −1.03 | −1.01 | −1.38 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.11 | −0.36 | −0.88 | −0.40 | −0.99 | −1.06 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.24 | −0.89 | −0.31 | −0.84 | −0.80 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.68 | −0.78 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.40 | −0.39 | −0.32 | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.42 | −0.49 | −0.89 | · | −1.08 | −1.01 | −0.94 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| AI labour shock | −0.36 | −0.29 | · | −0.77 | −0.67 | −0.79 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.66 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.26 | −0.89 | −0.89 | · | −0.99 | −1.02 | · | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.15 | −0.57 | −0.53 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.55 | −0.51 | −0.44 | −0.56 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.11 | −0.20 | · | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.41 | −0.67 | −0.47 | −0.42 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Turkmenistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −6.2 | 1.9 | 8.1 | 15 | 177 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −20.0 | 5.5 | 25.5 | 13 | 197 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −23.4 | 8.0 | 31.4 | 13 | 183 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −27.2 | 5.8 | 33.0 | 13 | 195 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −29.1 | 5.0 | 34.1 | 10 | 197 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −34.9 | 3.7 | 38.6 | 16 | 191 | Digital & Services Trade 2.3 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −43.0 | 2.9 | 45.9 | 7 | 197 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −47.4 | 1.2 | 48.6 | 4 | 196 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −52.2 | 3.7 | 55.9 | 18 | 197 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2.3 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −71.8 | 4.3 | 76.1 | 14 | 195 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Turkmenistan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 155 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.7 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 160 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 |
| Food and water failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 53 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Health system failure | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 95 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 122 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 170 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 89 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 183 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 83 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.4 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 128 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 146 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 158 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 168 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 175 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.0 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 166 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×17 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 160 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 161 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.5 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 160 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×25 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×27 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |