Tuvalu
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 71.3
- rank 10 of 197 · 3 years: 70.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −14.5
- rank 157 of 197 · 3 years: −14.0
- Shock absorbed
- 9%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.34
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 2of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: adult obesity rate; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Tuvalu’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.87 | −0.91 | −0.97 | −0.47 | ▼ 2 | 7 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.80 | −0.91 | −0.98 | −0.47 | ▼ 3 | 6 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.73 | −0.86 | −0.95 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 10 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.83 | −0.71 | −0.75 | −0.37 | ▼ 3 | 6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.58 | −0.65 | −0.76 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 6 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.68 | −0.62 | −0.74 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.55 | −0.57 | −0.63 | −0.29 | ▼ 1 | 4 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.50 | −0.55 | −0.60 | −0.28 | ▼ 1 | 5 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.70 | −0.55 | −0.58 | −0.28 | ▼ 3 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.28 | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.18 | ▲ 7 | 4 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.08 | −1.14 | −0.33 | −0.60 | −0.60 | −1.50 | −1.40 | −1.07 | −1.45 |
| AI labour shock | −0.08 | −0.48 | · | −1.42 | −1.17 | −1.50 | −1.27 | −1.15 | −1.11 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.08 | −0.48 | −0.26 | −1.30 | −1.09 | −1.22 | −1.13 | −1.04 | −1.11 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.08 | −0.63 | −0.33 | · | −1.42 | −1.47 | −1.26 | −0.57 | −0.67 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −0.91 | −0.21 | −0.82 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.99 | −0.74 | −0.84 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.08 | −0.42 | −0.33 | −0.42 | −0.98 | −1.36 | −1.12 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.07 | −0.38 | · | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.84 | −1.36 | −0.92 | −0.78 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.08 | −0.31 | −0.20 | −0.34 | −0.79 | −0.77 | −0.79 | −0.70 | −0.97 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.08 | −0.98 | −0.33 | · | −1.25 | −1.33 | · | −0.49 | −0.49 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.06 | −0.45 | −0.11 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.49 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Tuvalu is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.7 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 8 | 136 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 10 | 113 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.5 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +1.2 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 6 | 128 | Resource Infrastructure 0.3 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.7 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 16 | 151 | Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 6.1 | 16.5 | 9 | 121 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.8 | 6.5 | 18.3 | 9 | 153 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −15.1 | 2.9 | 18.0 | 6 | 168 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −23.0 | 1.4 | 24.4 | 2 | 120 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −31.0 | 6.8 | 37.8 | 8 | 194 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −31.1 | 2.1 | 33.3 | 4 | 188 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Tuvalu, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 6.7% Likely · rank 9 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Resource Infrastructure 0.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 4.5% Possible · rank 4 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 9 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Health system failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 153 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 183 | AI labour shock Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×38 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.2 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 188 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Food and water failure | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 191 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 189 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×11 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 188 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 188 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 188 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×26 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.1 of 1.5 | ×29 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |