Uganda
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 21.3
- rank 98 of 197 · 3 years: 21.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −0.9
- rank 68 of 197 · 3 years: −0.7
- Shock absorbed
- 24%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.23
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; refugees hosted per head of population; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Uganda’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.69 | −0.79 | −0.99 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.66 | −0.78 | −1.04 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 24 | Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.73 | −0.74 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.73 | −0.70 | −0.94 | −0.41 | 0 | 23 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.4 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.63 | −0.58 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.3 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.41 | −0.49 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 8 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.1 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.40 | −0.46 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 7 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 2.4 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.40 | −0.43 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 8 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.34 | −0.39 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.21 | −0.18 | −0.23 | −0.10 | ▲ 6 | 9 | Maritime Power 0.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.45 | −1.06 | −0.89 | −0.41 | −0.41 | −1.02 | −0.95 | −0.82 | −1.05 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.41 | −0.97 | −0.34 | −0.91 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.99 | −0.75 | −0.85 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.12 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.40 | −1.00 | −1.06 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.41 | −0.45 | −0.81 | −0.41 | −0.95 | −1.33 | −1.09 | −0.41 | −0.47 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.35 | −0.38 | · | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.78 | −1.28 | −0.90 | −0.80 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.52 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.63 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| AI labour shock | −0.51 | −0.23 | · | −0.61 | −0.54 | −0.63 | −0.54 | −0.53 | −0.53 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.56 | −0.30 | −0.56 | · | −0.68 | −0.64 | −0.59 | −0.25 | −0.29 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.49 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.45 | −0.47 | −0.46 | −0.63 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.29 | · | −0.32 | −0.33 | · | −0.12 | −0.12 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Uganda is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +16.0 | 19.3 | 3.4 | 26 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +13.4 | 19.9 | 6.6 | 32 | 3 | Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +12.3 | 21.5 | 9.2 | 31 | 57 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.5 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +8.2 | 16.6 | 8.4 | 20 | 92 | Energy Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +3.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 27 | 59 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −2.2 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 26 | 150 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −3.1 | 20.3 | 23.3 | 21 | 89 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −8.5 | 4.1 | 12.6 | 16 | 86 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −9.5 | 20.1 | 29.7 | 31 | 110 | Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −25.8 | 3.2 | 29.1 | 11 | 137 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Uganda, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 2.2% Possible · rank 76 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Breakdown of state function | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.9% Possible · rank 139 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 98 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Food and water failure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 33 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 151 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0.8 |
| Health system failure | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 79 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 6.4 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 58 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 63 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 6.4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 163 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 149 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 115 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 119 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 6.4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 90 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 6.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 126 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 85 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.2 Foundational → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 131 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 109 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 112 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 118 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 112 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.7 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 129 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×4.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 112 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 117 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 6.9 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 87 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.1 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 84 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.8 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×3.0 | Energy Technologies 2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.2 Foundational → Foundational | — Remote · rank 111 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×3.0 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.6 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 111 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |