United Kingdom
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 5.2
- rank 192 of 197 · 3 years: 5.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +38.5
- rank 7 of 197 · 3 years: +38.1
- Shock absorbed
- 63%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.00
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 0of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Labour & Employment
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: trade in goods and services relative to gdp; refugees hosted per head of population; public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; services as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in United Kingdom’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.92 | −0.52 | −1.38 | −0.52 | 0 | 11 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 13.6 · Established |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.80 | −0.48 | −1.20 | −0.48 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13 · Established |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.93 | −0.44 | −1.20 | −0.44 | 0 | 9 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 15.2 · Advanced |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.96 | −0.43 | −1.20 | −0.43 | 0 | 10 | Labour & Employment 14 · Established |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.76 | −0.43 | −1.12 | −0.42 | 0 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 13.4 · Established |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.78 | −0.43 | −1.21 | −0.43 | 0 | 11 | Labour & Employment 14.2 · Established |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.67 | −0.26 | −0.75 | −0.26 | 0 | 6 | Internal Security & Order 15.3 · Advanced |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.49 | −0.24 | −0.64 | −0.24 | 0 | 5 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 13.4 · Established |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.31 | −0.19 | −0.49 | −0.19 | 0 | 6 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 13.9 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | Low 0.24 | −0.12 | −0.34 | −0.12 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.9 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.58 | −0.26 | · | −0.70 | −0.61 | −0.72 | −0.61 | −0.60 | −0.60 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.63 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.56 | −0.55 | −0.76 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.56 | −0.31 | −0.62 | · | −0.68 | −0.64 | −0.60 | −0.26 | −0.29 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.28 | · | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.58 | −0.94 | −0.66 | −0.59 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.56 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.51 | −0.43 | −0.56 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.56 | −0.49 | −0.52 | −0.49 | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.19 | −0.42 | −0.46 | · | −0.47 | −0.48 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.45 | −0.37 | −0.14 | −0.16 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.21 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.15 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what United Kingdom is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +61.7 | 62.4 | 0.7 | 84 | 8 | Health System Capability 16.3 · Advanced |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +60.4 | 66.0 | 5.6 | 77 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +53.8 | 69.7 | 15.9 | 84 | 3 | Health System Capability 16.3 · Advanced |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +51.5 | 59.1 | 7.6 | 77 | 1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +40.6 | 40.7 | 0.2 | 76 | 18 | Resource Infrastructure 14.3 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +36.4 | 41.9 | 5.5 | 79 | 2 | Technical & Vocational Skills 15 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +35.9 | 36.4 | 0.5 | 82 | 9 | Internal Security & Order 16 · Advanced |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +16.6 | 19.5 | 3.0 | 81 | 13 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +5.5 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 80 | 34 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +2.9 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 76 | 87 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 14.3 · Established |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for United Kingdom, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 17.5 Advanced → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 151 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 16.4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 17.4 Advanced → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 104 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 16.4 |
| Breakdown of state function | 16.5 Advanced → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 177 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 14.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 16.5 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 158 | AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 14.7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 16.5 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 66 | Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 14.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 16.1 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 125 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Resource Infrastructure 14.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 17.6 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 121 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 17.2 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 75 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.4 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 17.5 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 70 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 16.0 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 150 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.4 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 17.7 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 80 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.4 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 15.5 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 87 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 16.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 15.9 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 76 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Global funding seizure Severeplans fail | ×4.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 16.4 |
| Broad fall in national security | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 50 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.9 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Collapse in energy security | 15.3 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 85 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Resource Infrastructure 14.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 25 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.8 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 14.7 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 17.3 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 68 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.4 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Defence readiness failure | 16.1 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 65 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×5.5 | Resource Infrastructure 14.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 15.3 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 5 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×5.2 | Resource Infrastructure 14.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 15.3 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 29 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 14.7 |
| Health system failure | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 187 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Health System Capability 16.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 16.2 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 108 | Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 14.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 16.0 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 133 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×5.3 | Resource Infrastructure 14.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 15.9 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 93 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.6 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 14.7 |
| Food and water failure | 14.7 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 186 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×6.9 | Resource Infrastructure 14.3 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 26% Highly likely · rank 3 | Chronic disease advance Severe | ×0.9 | Health System Capability 16.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Frontier AI and compute | 15.7 Advanced → Advanced | 24% Likely · rank 2 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Capable digital government | 16.8 Advanced → Frontier | 20% Likely · rank 3 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.1 | Health System Capability 16.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 16.2 Advanced → Advanced | 19% Likely · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 18% Likely · rank 6 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.1 | Health System Capability 16.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 18% Likely · rank 2 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Research translated into value | 17.3 Advanced → Frontier | 17% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Sophisticated export strength | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 16% Likely · rank 2 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Major | ×0.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 15.9 Advanced → Advanced | 14% Likely · rank 11 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.2 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Trusted public institutions | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 13% Likely · rank 11 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.1 | Health System Capability 16.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value international business | 17.2 Advanced → Frontier | 13% Likely · rank 3 | Market access opening Major + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 15.9 Advanced → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Health System Capability 16.3 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 11% Likely · rank 1 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Health System Capability 16.3 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 16.2 Advanced → Advanced | 10% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.3 | Health System Capability 16.3 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 16.0 Advanced → Advanced | 9.1% Likely · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Health System Capability 16.3 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 15.7 Advanced → Advanced | 8.2% Likely · rank 9 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Secure food and water supply | 14.7 Established → Advanced | 7.3% Likely · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Health System Capability 16.3 |
| Wider international influence | 17.7 Advanced → Frontier | 5.3% Likely · rank 3 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 17.4 Advanced → Frontier | 4.3% Possible · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.2 | Health System Capability 16.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Assured space services | 15.6 Advanced → Advanced | 4.2% Possible · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Broad rise in national security | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 3.9% Possible · rank 2 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| More deployable joint force | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 3.9% Possible · rank 2 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 17.2 Advanced → Frontier | 3.1% Possible · rank 3 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Stronger information environment | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 2.3% Possible · rank 8 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Health System Capability 16.3 · reaches Frontier |
| Deeper long-term finance | 17.4 Advanced → Frontier | 2.3% Possible · rank 13 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.6 | Health System Capability 16.3 · reaches Frontier |