Uruguay
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 12.3
- rank 152 of 197 · 3 years: 12.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +3.3
- rank 63 of 197 · 3 years: +3.6
- Shock absorbed
- 37%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.15
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Uruguay’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.78 | −0.76 | −1.21 | −0.53 | 0 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.5 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.70 | −0.70 | −1.02 | −0.45 | 0 | 19 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.72 | −0.67 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.71 | −0.65 | −1.05 | −0.46 | 0 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 3.7 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.78 | −0.54 | −1.01 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.67 | −0.51 | −0.93 | −0.41 | 0 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 8 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.56 | −0.41 | −0.70 | −0.31 | 0 | 15 | Economic Output & Productivity 8 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.40 | −0.40 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.46 | −0.37 | −0.51 | −0.22 | 0 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.9 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.21 | −0.20 | −0.33 | −0.15 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.6 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.81 | −0.41 | −0.33 | −0.99 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.40 | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.36 | −0.36 | −0.91 | −0.85 | −0.73 | −0.93 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.86 | −0.47 | −0.87 | · | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.92 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| AI labour shock | −0.72 | −0.33 | · | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.63 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −1.03 | −0.84 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.77 | −0.25 | −0.61 | −0.27 | −0.68 | −0.73 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.25 | −0.27 | · | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.90 | −0.63 | −0.56 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.51 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.45 | −0.47 | −0.46 | −0.63 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.27 | −0.60 | −0.60 | · | −0.67 | −0.69 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Uruguay is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +23.2 | 27.2 | 4.0 | 38 | 56 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +20.4 | 21.9 | 1.6 | 31 | 46 | Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +10.4 | 33.8 | 23.4 | 40 | 49 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +7.9 | 18.7 | 10.7 | 37 | 41 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +7.8 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 38 | 75 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.2 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +7.4 | 21.9 | 14.5 | 48 | 44 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 54 | 69 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −5.8 | 9.0 | 14.8 | 16 | 58 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −6.9 | 8.4 | 15.3 | 22 | 76 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −19.6 | 9.8 | 29.4 | 38 | 189 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Uruguay, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 2.1% Possible · rank 124 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Loss of financial stability | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 147 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 114 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 144 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 99 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Rule of law failure | 13.6 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 134 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 126 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 4.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 46 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Health system failure | 12.3 Established → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 164 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 72 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 102 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 95 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 4.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 133 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Maritime Power 4.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 110 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 106 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Maritime Power 4.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 122 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 102 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Food and water failure | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 177 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 10.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.1 Established → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 132 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 79 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Maritime Power 4.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 98 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 67 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 66 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 68 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 1.5% Possible · rank 55 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Capable digital government | 12.1 Established → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 57 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 13.0 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 59 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Trusted public institutions | 12.9 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 64 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.5 Inception → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.4 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 6.2 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 60 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.3 | Energy Technologies 3.2 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 10.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 9.4 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 64 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.9 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9 |
| Higher-value international business | 10.0 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 68 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |