Uzbekistan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 21.8
- rank 96 of 197 · 3 years: 21.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −12.5
- rank 146 of 197 · 3 years: −12.2
- Shock absorbed
- 24%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.25
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Uzbekistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.82 | −0.84 | −1.01 | −0.45 | ▼ 4 | 25 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.78 | −0.80 | −0.99 | −0.44 | ▼ 5 | 23 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.1 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.63 | −0.70 | −0.92 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Artificial Intelligence 1.6 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.60 | −0.69 | −0.92 | −0.41 | 0 | 24 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.5 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.66 | −0.63 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.6 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.54 | −0.59 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.70 | −0.59 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▼ 7 | 16 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.54 | −0.58 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 5 | 19 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.39 | −0.54 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5.3 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Low 0.27 | −0.25 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 6 | 11 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.4 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.98 | −0.62 | −1.05 | · | −1.37 | −1.28 | −1.20 | −0.51 | −0.59 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.47 | −0.51 | −0.86 | −0.47 | −1.09 | −1.52 | −1.24 | −0.47 | −0.53 |
| AI labour shock | −0.75 | −0.35 | · | −0.94 | −0.82 | −0.97 | −0.82 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.72 | −0.37 | −0.29 | −0.90 | −0.78 | −0.84 | −0.78 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.96 | −0.30 | −0.76 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.72 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.68 | −0.71 | −0.69 | −0.95 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.45 | −0.98 | −0.84 | · | −1.09 | −1.12 | · | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.33 | −0.79 | −0.63 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.61 | −0.78 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.20 | −0.48 | −0.17 | −0.46 | −0.43 | −0.47 | −0.50 | −0.37 | −0.43 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.15 | −0.17 | · | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.56 | −0.39 | −0.35 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Uzbekistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +6.4 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 28 | 101 | Energy Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.3 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 32 | 145 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −4.0 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 31 | 147 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.3 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −7.7 | 16.7 | 24.4 | 28 | 116 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −7.7 | 12.8 | 20.5 | 27 | 175 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −16.0 | 10.4 | 26.4 | 28 | 175 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −17.2 | 11.6 | 28.9 | 33 | 148 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −17.2 | 11.5 | 28.7 | 20 | 173 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −22.9 | 3.3 | 26.2 | 16 | 169 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −29.6 | 6.0 | 35.6 | 12 | 152 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Uzbekistan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 3.5% Possible · rank 62 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 5 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 60 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 34 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 5 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 19 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 65 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 169 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Severe | ×2.1 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 162 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 142 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 7 |
| Health system failure | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 141 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 82 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 85 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.7 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 73 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5 |
| Food and water failure | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 159 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 7 |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 69 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 153 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 155 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 95 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 169 | Core disaster Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Artificial Intelligence 3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.1 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 180 | AI labour shock Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Artificial Intelligence 3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 101 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 101 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 101 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 105 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 104 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |