Zambia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 26.8
- rank 79 of 197 · 3 years: 26.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −4.4
- rank 89 of 197 · 3 years: −4.3
- Shock absorbed
- 21%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.26
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 0of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Zambia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.77 | −0.85 | −1.07 | −0.48 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.82 | −0.75 | −1.03 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.2 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.76 | −0.72 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▼ 3 | 17 | Economic Output & Productivity 3.2 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.56 | −0.67 | −0.83 | −0.37 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.1 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.62 | −0.65 | −0.86 | −0.38 | 0 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 4.3 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.53 | −0.60 | −0.75 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.49 | −0.59 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Population Health 4.5 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.50 | −0.58 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▲ 4 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 0.8 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.49 | −0.52 | −0.60 | −0.27 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.27 | −0.24 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▲ 4 | 6 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.40 | −1.19 | −0.86 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.14 | −1.07 | −0.92 | −1.18 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.35 | −0.49 | −0.83 | −0.45 | −1.05 | −1.46 | −1.19 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.35 | −0.48 | · | −0.49 | −0.44 | −0.99 | −1.61 | −1.13 | −1.00 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.55 | −0.37 | −0.29 | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.83 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −0.98 | −0.31 | −0.78 | −0.35 | −0.88 | −0.93 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.58 | −0.32 | −0.28 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.74 | −0.73 | −1.00 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.27 | −0.74 | −0.25 | −0.69 | −0.66 | −0.71 | −0.76 | −0.57 | −0.65 |
| AI labour shock | −0.50 | −0.30 | · | −0.80 | −0.70 | −0.82 | −0.70 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.53 | −0.38 | −0.66 | · | −0.85 | −0.80 | −0.74 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.17 | −0.40 | −0.36 | · | −0.44 | −0.46 | · | −0.17 | −0.17 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Zambia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +15.6 | 17.2 | 1.7 | 19 | 60 | Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +12.5 | 19.6 | 7.1 | 31 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +8.7 | 14.3 | 5.6 | 26 | 71 | Intelligence & Assessment 4 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +8.6 | 12.1 | 3.5 | 20 | 49 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 21 | 72 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −2.5 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 20 | 151 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −3.7 | 18.3 | 22.0 | 20 | 94 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −9.0 | 5.5 | 14.4 | 14 | 89 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −18.8 | 21.6 | 40.4 | 28 | 154 | Digital & Services Trade 5.3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −34.6 | 2.8 | 37.4 | 8 | 172 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Zambia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 2.6% Possible · rank 94 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 2.5% Possible · rank 60 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 48 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 90 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 59 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 29 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 118 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 97 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 73 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Food and water failure | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 65 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 52 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Health system failure | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 135 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 86 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 114 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 133 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 150 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 150 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 169 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 122 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 122 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.7 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 122 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.7 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 127 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 6.2 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 88 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.5 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 85 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |