Zimbabwe
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 33.1
- rank 60 of 197 · 3 years: 33.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −6.8
- rank 102 of 197 · 3 years: −6.7
- Shock absorbed
- 17%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Monetary & Currency Capability
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; consumer price inflation; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; few months of imports covered by reserves; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; remittances relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Zimbabwe’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.76 | −0.97 | −1.18 | −0.52 | ▼ 8 | 17 | Monetary & Currency Capability 1.1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.87 | −0.90 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Monetary & Currency Capability 0.9 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.67 | −0.81 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.73 | −0.78 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Monetary & Currency Capability 1.1 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.52 | −0.63 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 1.1 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.54 | −0.60 | −0.75 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.46 | −0.58 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 5 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.51 | −0.56 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.41 | −0.50 | −0.60 | −0.27 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.26 | −0.24 | −0.28 | −0.13 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.49 | −1.22 | −0.40 | −1.14 | −1.09 | −1.17 | −1.25 | −0.94 | −1.07 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.50 | −0.58 | −0.98 | −0.53 | −1.23 | −1.72 | −1.41 | −0.53 | −0.60 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.45 | −1.10 | −0.87 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.85 | −1.09 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.45 | −0.52 | · | −0.52 | −0.47 | −1.06 | −1.72 | −1.21 | −1.07 |
| AI labour shock | −0.65 | −0.32 | · | −0.85 | −0.75 | −0.88 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.90 | −0.28 | −0.71 | −0.32 | −0.80 | −0.86 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.58 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.75 | −0.66 | −0.70 | −0.66 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.68 | −0.40 | −0.70 | · | −0.90 | −0.84 | −0.78 | −0.34 | −0.38 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.59 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.60 | −0.58 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.81 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.18 | −0.39 | −0.35 | · | −0.43 | −0.45 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Zimbabwe is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +13.5 | 15.3 | 1.8 | 17 | 69 | Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +11.4 | 15.2 | 3.8 | 20 | 34 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +10.1 | 18.1 | 8.0 | 25 | 14 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +4.8 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 25 | 95 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 4.5 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −4.8 | 7.4 | 12.1 | 20 | 103 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −6.2 | 8.2 | 14.4 | 19 | 163 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 15.2 | 25.5 | 17 | 132 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −13.1 | 3.6 | 16.7 | 13 | 112 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −23.9 | 15.3 | 39.3 | 25 | 170 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −33.9 | 3.2 | 37.1 | 9 | 170 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Zimbabwe, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 3.9% Possible · rank 19 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Breakdown of state function | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.1% Possible · rank 78 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 65 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 87 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Food and water failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 20 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 71 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 68 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Health system failure | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 82 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 59 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 73 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 85 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 117 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 86 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 75 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 63 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 80 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 112 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.2 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 143 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 138 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.7 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.7 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 135 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |